Florida congressional map survives first court test

A Florida judge kept Gov. Ron DeSantis' new congressional map alive Tuesday, allowing the state to implement a Republican-friendly plan while three state lawsuits continue.

Why it matters: The national redistricting fight is a race to pre-write who controls Congress before voters ever see a ballot.

• Control of the U.S. House could turn on seats manufactured in state capitals as part of a mid-decade redistricting war started by President Trump.
• In 2010 nearly 63% of Florida voters approved a ban on partisan gerrymandering, but DeSantis' general counsel told lawmakers the state doesn't have to abide by that ban.

The latest: The ruling by Leon County Circuit Judge Joshua Hawkes, a DeSantis appointee, keeps DeSantis' map in place while the lawsuits continue and election officials prepare for the 2026 races.

• The fight likely ends at the Florida Supreme Court, where DeSantis appointed six of seven justices and all seven were appointed by Republican governors.
• Hawkes found plaintiffs had not shown a substantial likelihood of success, writing that mapmaker Jason Poreda's use of partisan data was circumstantial evidence, not direct proof of illegal intent.
• He said forcing Florida back to its 2022 map on a rushed record would be improper, especially with the state's election machinery already underway and the primary less than three months away.

The big picture: DeSantis' map lands in a national redistricting fight that is moving fast and mostly in Republicans' direction.

• The U.S. Supreme Court strengthened GOP arguments against race-conscious districts.
• Virginia's pro-Democratic gerrymander was struck down by its state Supreme Court. Louisiana is expected to convert one of its two Black Democratic seats into a Republican seat. Tennessee has already eliminated its last Democratic, Black-majority seat. South Carolina is weighing doing the same.

Flashback: DeSantis already remade Florida's congressional map once.

• In 2022, he vetoed the Legislature's map, pushed lawmakers to pass his own and helped produce a delegation of 20 Republicans and just eight Democrats.
• This year, his office drew the replacement map, sent it to lawmakers and provided Axios a version colored red and blue by partisan performance.

Catch up quick: All three state lawsuits challenging DeSantis' map have been consolidated before Hawkes.

• At Friday's hearing, plaintiffs leaned on DeSantis' mapmaker Jason Poreda's statements that he drew the map "not having to comply with the Fair Districts Amendment" and used "partisan data" for "every district."
• DeSantis first unveiled the map to Fox News by pointing to Florida's shift from a Democratic voter registration advantage "to a 1.5 million Republican advantage."
• GOP state Rep. Tom Fabricio posted on X: "Done correctly, this will strengthen Republican seats, help keep a GOP majority in Congress to advance solid policies and stand up to the woke left."

The other side: The state argued the court has no power to block the map and that changing maps this close to an election would confuse voters.

• That timing argument has an obvious tension: The state is defending a map enacted months before the primary.
• Although the Fair Districts Amendment bans any districts "drawn to favor or disfavor" a political party, the state argued plaintiffs had to prove the Legislature, not just the person who drew the map, was biased.
• The state doesn't argue the map improved districts' compactness or other requirements under the Fair Districts Amendments. But it says the map was roughly comparable on those metrics.

What's next: Plaintiffs are likely to appeal, and the lawsuits will continue to trial.

• Judge Hawkes wrote it was more likely a potential injunction would affect the 2028 or 2030 elections.

The bottom line: DeSantis' efforts to upend Florida Democrats' districts looks likely to hold for at least the 2026 election.