Netanyahu squeezed between Trump and election year politics

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's recent spat with President Trump over Lebanon underscored how his military objectives, and possibly his political survival, are dependent on a U.S. president who doesn't share his appetite for escalation.

Why it matters: Trump and Netanyahu have coordinated very closely on Iran and speak almost daily. But officials on both sides have been cognizant that there could be a point in time when the allies' interests and objectives diverge. Some in Netanyahu's camp worry that time is now.

• Netanyahu himself said Tuesday that it was an "open question" as to whether he and Trump were aligned on how the war with Iran should end.

The big picture: With an election expected by October, Netanyahu hasn't delivered on his promise to destroy Hamas or his plans for regime change in Iran, and he's under immense criticism at home over the ongoing Hezbollah attacks.

• Every time a siren near the border heralds an incoming drone or missile, Netanyahu faces domestic pressure to respond.
• It was in that context that he vowed to conduct major strikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut — before being forced into retreat by an angry Trump, who cares far less about Lebanon than a deal with Iran.

Driving the news: When Trump chastised Netanyahu in a call on Monday and pulled the brakes on the Beirut strikes, he also kicked up a political firestorm in Israel.

• Rivals and even some hawkish government allies claimed Netanyahu had made Israel an American "vassal," or surrendered Israeli sovereignty to Trump.
• The Trump-Netanyahu call came after Iran threatened to abandon the negotiations with the U.S. over Israel's actions in Lebanon and to launch missiles at Israel.
• "It was a terrible phone call. Trump really hammered Bibi. He demanded that he immediately back down from the plan to strike Beirut in order to not blow up the situation in Lebanon — and through that, the negotiations with Iran," an Israeli source said.

What they're saying: Netanyahu didn't deny that Trump had called him "crazy" or claimed he'd been in jail without Trump's help. Instead, the prime minister told CNBC he and Trump had argued before but always maintained their close partnership.

• Similarly, Trump confirmed Axios' reporting about the call to the NY Post while adding that he likes Netanyahu and has worked well with him.

Between the lines: While the call may have been just a blip in their personal relationship, their differences over the Iran endgame are more stubborn.

• Two senior U.S. officials told Axios that while Trump wants to end the war, Netanyahu seems to want to resume it.
• "Sometimes Bibi doesn't know when to stop," one of the U.S. officials said.
• The fact that Netanyahu quickly abandoned the plan to strike Lebanon, and moved to clean up any perception of a rift, underscored the degree to which Netanyahu's military maneuvers and political standing are subject to Trump's influence.

Zoom in: Netanyahu is concerned the tense call is a prelude for further U.S. limitations on Israel's freedom of operations in Lebanon, an Israeli source who speaks regularly with the prime minister and his close advisers said.

• The source said Netanyahu fears the U.S. will apply much stricter criteria to Israeli strikes in Lebanon — not just Beirut — before giving its "green light."

What to watch: On Wednesday, after two days of talks between Israeli and Lebanese diplomats in Washington, the two countries announced a plan for a full ceasefire, contingent on steps from Hezbollah.

• It was not immediately clear whether the Shia militia would accept the new terms.
• If a stable ceasefire isn't reached and Hezbollah continues firing at Israel, Netanyahu might be able to convince Trump to allow him to bomb Beirut after all.
• Trump said on Wednesday that he's trying to separate the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah from the war with Iran, and thinks a deal with Iran could be reached as early as this weekend.

The bottom line: Netanyahu is skeptical of restraint in Lebanon and of a deal with Iran, and both are politically toxic for him. U.S. officials have worried he might try to undermine their diplomacy on both fronts.

• What he can't afford to do, however, is openly split with Trump four months before an election.