Maine Dems plot response if Nebraska GOP tweaks Electoral College votes

Democrats in mostly blue Maine are threatening to retaliate if Republican-led Nebraska changes how it awards Electoral College votes for the 2028 presidential election.

Why it matters: It's the latest example of tit-for-tat election politics that have come to define the Trump era, and that could help determine who wins the race for the White House.

Zoom in: Several Democrats running to be Maine's next governor have signaled they would support modifying state law to adopt a "winner take all" electoral vote system in the presidential race if Nebraska did the same.

• Unlike other states, Maine and Nebraska dole out their Electoral College votes partly based on the winner of each congressional district.
• That's led to GOP presidential contenders picking up one of Maine's four Electoral College votes in the 2020 and 2024 elections, and Democrats similarly winning one of Nebraska's five Electoral College votes in those years.

Speculation that Nebraska could move to a winner-take-all system has fueled chatter about a response by Maine.

• "We must fight fire with fire," Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, a Democratic gubernatorial candidate, posted last week on X. "If Nebraska changes their Electoral College system to a winner-take-all, Maine must be prepared to act in response to protect the presidency and our democracy."

Zoom out: Nebraska Republicans — under pressure from Gov. Jim Pillen — debated changing state law last year to allocate their Electoral College votes on a winner-take-all basis, but those efforts fell flat.

• Some Democrats, however, remain concerned that Nebraska's legislature could pass such a bill. That possibility was a major issue in a congressional primary last month.

The potential changes in Maine and Nebraska would nullify each other if both were enacted.

• But just the possibility of even a small tweak in each party's Electoral College calculus has led to game-planning similar to what happened during President Trump's mid-decade redistricting push.
• Hannah Pingree, another Democrat running for Maine governor, told us she'd support changing the state's Electoral College system to winner-take-all if Nebraska did — and that it's worth considering even if Nebraska didn't.
• "In this time of Donald Trump, I think it's really important to think about common-sense changes in our laws," she said.

Nirav Shah, a third Democrat vying for Maine governor, backs changing the state's current approach toward allocating Electoral College votes if Nebraska did so, he told Axios.

• A spokesperson said a video of Shah suggesting otherwise was edited.
• A fourth contender for Maine governor, Troy Jackson, a progressive backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), said on social media that he's "very open to looking at changes" in the state's Electoral College policy.

What they're saying: "The last year has revealed a very blatant set of actions on behalf of red states to maximize voting," said Sarah Knight, a D.C.-based progressive strategist who's written about issues such as redistricting.

• "There's been an important grappling of the reality of that in blue states."

Reality check: Jane Kleeb, chair of Nebraska's Democratic Party, told us that fears of a change in her state are overblown.

• "The Nebraska Republican Party does not have the votes to change the current fair-split electoral vote system," she said in a text.

What we're watching: Maine's Democratic primary for governor Tuesday — in which Shah, Jackson and Pingree are among the top-polling contenders — could help determine the state's appetite for changing its Electoral College scheme.