AOC's hot streak on endorsements divides the left

New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is on a hot streak.

• In the last month alone, four progressive House candidates she's endorsed in open primaries have cruised to victory, making her an early kingmaker as she weighs a 2028 presidential run.

Why it matters: AOC has gotten on a roll by deploying a different strategy from that of her mentor, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) — one that, despite its success, is dividing the left.

• While Sanders has endorsed dozens of progressive candidates up and down ballots across the country this year, Ocasio-Cortez has been more choosy.
• Some on the left say she's being overly cautious, and reluctant to support progressives who are taking on her Democratic colleagues in the House.

State of play: AOC's left-wing picks won congressional primaries in California, Pennsylvania, Montana and New Jersey — often over the Democratic establishment's preferred candidates.

• Her favorites have succeeded in both deep-blue and GOP-controlled districts.
• But so far, Ocasio-Cortez has shied from endorsing anti-establishment progressives in high-profile Senate primaries — notably in Maine, where Sanders got behind primary winner Graham Platner, and in Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed is on the Aug. 4 primary ballot.
• Staying out of the Maine primary enabled AOC to keep her hands clean as controversy after controversy consumed Platner — but it also left some progressives frustrated.

AOC likewise has avoided backing left-wing insurgents trying to unseat Democratic House incumbents, even though she got her start in politics by ousting a sitting member of her party.

• Sanders and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani are rallying in Brooklyn on Thursday for Darializa Avila Chevalier, a democratic socialist challenging Rep. Adriano Espaillat, chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.
• The rally will include New York City-area congressional candidates Brad Lander and Claire Valdez, whom Sanders and Mamdani have endorsed. Lander is challenging Rep. Dan Goldman, and Valdez is running for the seat held by departing Rep. Nydia Velazquez, who has endorsed Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso.
• Ocasio-Cortez hasn't endorsed in any of those races yet.

Yes, but: AOC has been more willing to get behind progressives challenging sitting Democratic members of New York's state legislature than Mamdani.

The intrigue: A New York progressive operative said Ocasio-Cortez endorses only in races that are "close to a sure thing — she's not going to take a lot of risks."

• That operative praised Mamdani — who's seen as closer than AOC to the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) — for throwing his weight behind Chevalier. "It shows the stomach he has and the commitment he has to the movement. He's not worried about ruffling feathers and taking risks."
• Jesse Lehrich, a Democratic strategist who writes a newsletter about 2028 candidates, shot back, "Only AOC could strategically leverage her influence to secure improbable progressive victories from NYC to Montana, and get yelled at by the left for being a sellout."

A person familiar with AOC's endorsement process told Axios she looks for candidates who can win as well as those for whom her support could make a difference. She often quizzes contenders on their field organizing, path to victory, and ties to the community.

• "It's ideologically driven in some part, but it's also really driven by candidates who can get it done," the source said.
• AOC liked that Philadelphia congressional candidate and state Rep. Chris Rabb was casually known around town as "Rep. Rabb" — a sign of his local roots. She headlined a rally for the left-wing contender, who has clashed with Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, in a three-way competitive primary.

Between the lines: AOC's fans and critics alike agree on one thing: Her endorsement matters.

• Anti-establishment progressive Saikat Chakrabarti recently lost his bid for Congress in San Francisco. He campaigned on the fact that he was AOC's first chief of staff in Congress — but she didn't endorse him.
• "That was probably the major factor" in his loss, he said. "My opponent spent about $1 million turning [AOC's] non-endorsement into an attack on my trustworthiness."
• But Chakrabarti said he didn't blame Ocasio-Cortez, and said if he were to rerun the race, he likely wouldn't focus on that part of his biography.

Rabb, who carried his primary by double digits, said, "I don't think I won because of AOC, but AOC got me a lot of traction, got me a lot of new supporters, got me new attention on the race because she helped nationalize the race by getting involved."

• New York City's DSA co-chair Gustavo Gordillo added: "She definitely moves votes at the doors when you're talking in New York City to ordinary, working-class people."