The GOP is souring on Israel

Benjamin Netanyahu lost the Democrats. Now a growing number of Republicans are souring on him and his country, too.

Why it matters: More Republicans, especially younger ones, turned on Israel as its military leveled Gaza — and then Netanyahu alienated President Trump and his team as they sought to end the Iran war.

• For 15 years, Netanyahu offset collapsing Democratic support by cultivating Republicans. If Republican support is no longer guaranteed, he has a serious problem — and so does Israel.

The big picture: That problem starts at the highest level of the Republican Party.

• In September of last year, as President Trump was pressing Netanyahu to accept a Gaza peace deal, he told the Israeli prime minister that "all the Jews are sick of you" and there would be a "divorce" between the two countries if he refused to go along, according to Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan's new book, Regime Change.
• Axios reported that Trump called Netanyahu "fucking crazy" and warned his actions risked further isolating Israel around the world. Trump later told Axios in an interview that his relationship with Netanyahu is good, "but we have to keep him a little bit sane."
• Trump's possible heir apparent, Vice President JD Vance, rebuked Israeli officials opposing the Iran deal.
• "If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world," he said.

The strains over the war came as high-profile "America First" anti-interventionists — led by Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly and Marjorie Taylor Greene — stoked the backlash against Israel.

• Carlson, who left the Republican Party last week, said Netanyahu manipulated Trump into joining the war. He called the president a "slave" to the Israeli prime minister.
• Ben Shapiro, the Daily Wire co-founder and staunch Israel defender, has seen his ratings fall as right-wing listeners opposed to U.S. support for Israel turn elsewhere.

Between the lines: Israel has become a new litmus test in the online right's war against the GOP establishment.

• Nick Fuentes and his "Groyper" followers have spent years attacking mainstream conservatives for being too loyal to Israel — promoting antisemitic messages that once lived on the fringe but now echo through young conservative spaces.
• Bigger platforms have carried versions of the same argument. Carlson and Candace Owens have sharply escalated anti-Israel rhetoric, often casting U.S. support for Israel as evidence that "America First" has been corrupted by foreign influence.

By the numbers: Cracks are forming in the Republican firewall on Israel:

• An April Pew Research Center poll found that four in 10 Republicans have an unfavorable view of Israel. Fifty-seven percent of Republicans aged 18 to 49 felt that way, while one in four aged 50 or older had a negative view.
• One in five Republicans say the U.S. is too supportive of Israel, per a Quinnipiac University poll this month — three times the number after the Oct. 7 attacks three years ago.
• Israel's destruction of Gaza after the Oct. 7 attacks caused younger Republicans to reevaluate their attitudes about Israel. A University of Maryland Critical Issues poll last year showed less than half of Republicans, 46%, thought Israel's military actions were justified under the right to self-defense. Just 22% of Republicans aged 18-34 backed Israel's actions.
• "Something is absolutely brewing among young Republicans," the poll's director, government and politics professor Shibley Telhami, told Axios.

He said the war has accelerated young Republicans' drift away from Israel. Only one in four Republicans had a more positive than negative view of the Iran war, a May UMD Critical Issues poll revealed, while one in three had a more negative than positive opinion.

Reality check: The GOP writ large overwhelmingly backs Israel.

• A February Gallup poll showed 70% of Republicans sympathize more with Israelis than Palestinians. (Still, that was down 10 points from 2024.)
• Faith & Freedom Coalition founder Ralph Reed said the leadership of the Republican Party and the evangelical community is as pro-Israel as he's seen in more than three decades in GOP politics.
• But polling numbers on Israel across the U.S. electorate, including among Republicans, "are dangerously low," he said — a worrisome trend looking beyond the 2028 GOP presidential primary.

What we're watching: How much of Israel's lost standing is tied directly to Netanyahu — who's facing one of the toughest election fights of his career this fall — as opposed to the country itself.

Axios' Zachary Basu contributed reporting.