Dems' Tea Party-like rebellion built by a decade of frustration

Democratic leaders are increasingly alarmed that they're facing their own version of the GOP's Tea Party rebellion 17 years ago — and that they can't stop it.

Why it matters: The recent wave of primary victories by Democratic socialists and outsiders over the party's hand-selected candidates has shocked establishment Democrats. But the rage in the party has been building for a decade.

It's not just progressives vs. moderates. It's insiders vs. outsiders, with many Democratic voters dissatisfied with their own party.

• Some Democrats now believe the party is poised for a Trump-esque figure to take it over in 2028 — someone who'll offer an outlet for their anger.
• Dan Pfeiffer, a former top aide to Barack Obama and now co-host of "Pod Save America," said this week: "It is very clear that the groups of the left — Justice Democrats, Democratic Socialists of America, Our Revolution — are out-organizing, out-fundraising, out-working, out-maneuvering the traditional party institutions ... That is happening."

Zoom in: Democratic voters' growing distrust of their party's leadership — and their embrace of left-wing outsiders and populists — is rooted in Donald Trump's 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton.

• In the party's primaries that year, Democratic National Committee members and party elites helped ensure that Clinton won the nomination over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, a progressive icon.
• The insiders limited primary debates and had unusual joint fundraising agreements between the DNC and Clinton's campaign. The DNC's internal bias against Sanders was confirmed by a WikiLeaks email dump in 2016.

The Democratic establishment rallied around Joe Biden in 2020 to stop Sanders from winning the nomination because Biden was considered more electable. Biden ultimately barely won the election despite Trump's chaotic handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.

• Biden's presidency was unpopular and widely viewed as lacking energy. But he did embrace many left-wing policies Sanders and others had pushed for, including tough antitrust enforcement, enormous investments in clean energy and strong support for labor unions.

Then, in 2024, Democratic leaders went along with the fallacy that the 81-year-old Biden was capable of serving a second term.

• Trump's victory in the 2024 election essentially radicalized some Democratic voters who previously had seen his first term as a fluke. Many of those voters lost trust in their party's leadership, setting the stage for a rebellion that the left has stoked.

State of play: Against that backdrop, left-wing, outsider, and Democratic socialist candidates have racked up victories in races from coast to coast during Trump's second term.

• Democratic socialists and progressives followed last year's election of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani by beating two incumbent Democratic House members in the city last week.
• Candidates backed by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) won eight races and lost just one for the New York legislature, despite several being outspent. (Another contest remains undecided.)
• Democratic socialist Janeese Lewis George won D.C.'s Democratic primary for mayor, energizing young voters with a promise to tackle affordability issues and take on Trump.
• Marine Corps veteran Graham Platner easily beat Maine Gov. Janet Mills to become the Democratic nominee for a U.S. Senate seat that could tip control of the chamber in November.
• In a battleground congressional district in California, Randy Villegas — backed by Sanders and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a potential 2028 contender for president — beat the Democratic Party leadership's choice, state Rep. Jasmeet Bains.
• AOC-endorsed democratic socialist Chris Rabb won an open House primary in Pennsylvania against candidates more aligned with the Democratic establishment.
• Sam Forstag won his primary for a congressional seat in Montana against more moderate opponents with the backing of Sanders and AOC.
• And first-time candidate Adam Hamawy won a crowded primary for a New Jersey House seat this month, also backed by Sanders and AOC.

What they're saying: Rabb told Axios there are lessons that new progressive lawmakers can learn from the House Freedom Caucus, the rabble-rousing group of Republicans that rose out of the Tea Party in 2015 and pushed the GOP to the right.

• "If there's a small, even not-so-small Democratic majority, and there's a disciplined progressive voting bloc, that's power," Rabb said. "Even if it's just defensive power — saying, 'No, we're not voting for this, try again.' "

The other side: Plenty of incumbents and party-backed candidates have brushed off primary challengers.

• Rep. Ritchie Torres of New York, for instance, easily beat back a left-wing primary challenge in his Bronx-based district despite his outspoken support for Israel.
• New York Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic leader in the House, told reporters this week that "a handful of primaries that go in one direction or the other in a given state or two aren't going to reshape who we are as House Democrats."

Not all left-wing members want to create their own Tea Party inside the House.

• Greg Casar, chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said he sees his group "as very different from the Tea Party and the Freedom Caucus … who I think in many ways were at war with their party."

What's next: Democrats are closely watching several upcoming primaries for signs of how deeply the anti-establishment feelings will go. They include:

• Several primaries in Colorado, including the governor's race and the battle in a Denver-based congressional district where a young Democratic socialist is challenging a longtime incumbent.
• The gubernatorial primary in Wisconsin, where many state Democrats fear democratic socialist Francesca Hong could win.
• The Senate primary in Michigan, where left-winger Abdul El-Sayed could beat the establishment's preferred choice, Rep. Haley Stevens.