America's 250th fireworks party collides with burn-bans

Firework associations expect a massive boom in backyard fireworks this July 4, a surge that collides with dry conditions and a blistering heatwave that could drastically increase the risk of fires.

Why it matters: Climate change is increasing the likelihood and severity of wildfires, and large chunks of the U.S. are under burn bans because of severe drought.

What they're saying: "It only takes one small spark landing in dry vegetation under the right conditions to start a fast-moving wildfire," April Newman, a public information officer at Cal Fire, tells Axios.

• Embers can smolder for over a minute, Newman says, "increasing the potential for ignition even after the visible display has ended."
• Even if a lawn looks green, the "eye test can be deceiving," Brian Fuchs, a climatologist at the National Drought Mitigation Center, tells Axios. Dig just a few inches into Mid-Atlantic soil, "you hit dryness again."

State of play: Local governments navigating the drought created a patchwork of burn bans across the country.

• Colorado Springs issued a citywide burn ban earlier this week before canceling all fireworks displays — even professional ones — citing "extreme fire danger."
• Utah Gov. Spencer Cox suspended a state law that prevented local governments from enacting blanket bans, prompting Salt Lake County and others to outlaw fireworks.

The other side: Florida has no statewide fireworks ban despite lingering droughts and nine county-level burn bans.

• State law includes a "fireworks holiday" giving anyone over 18 the right to set them off.

By the numbers: The national landscape is dangerously primed for ignition, and tragedy is already playing out.

• Roughly 50% of the U.S. is currently in a drought, according to Fuchs.
• On July 1, the National Interagency Fire Center reported 257 new fires, and firefighters are trying to contain 51 large fires nationwide.
• Three firefighters died combating a major fire in western Colorado on Saturday.

The intrigue: July 4 celebrations bring a massive, sudden influx of potential ignition sources.

• When you combine millions of flying sparks with dry vegetation, humidity and a heatwave, wildfires get the exact catalyst they need to explode, safety and climate experts say.

Between the lines: Consumer demand for fireworks to commemorate America's 250th anniversary is at record levels.

• "People look like they're going to be showing their patriotism" Ed Vasel with the National Fireworks Association, tells Axios. "We're thinking things are going to be up maybe as much as 20-25% in some areas this year."
• Professional pyrotechnicians follow strict distance requirements and work with on-site fire departments, but neighborhood celebrations often lack those safeguards, he says.

Worth noting: Conditions for President Trump's record-breaking firework plans are better than they were weeks ago Fuchs says, but drought and sweltering heat still remain.

• While recent rain has provided some surface-level relief, these showers are not a complete "drought buster," Fuchs says.

The bottom line: "There's a lot of angst amongst people who believe that fireworks is a right, and that it is culturally valuable, and that it is something that no one should be able to interfere with," David Barrett, executive director of The Safe Community Project, tells Axios.

• "I appreciate and have empathy for those opinions. I do think at the same time…they recognize that the decisions they make don't affect only themselves for their personal pleasure, but those around them who they might inadvertently injure or kill."

Go deeper: Trump's July Fourth event faces dangerous D.C. heat - Axios Washington D.C.