Ukraine proves it can hit Russia almost anywhere

The Ukrainian military is proving it can blow up pretty much whatever it wants.

Why it matters: Fewer and fewer places feel safe inside Russia, as oil facilities, weapons factories, convoys and bombers burn.

Driving the news: Russia is facing fuel shortages due to repeated refinery strikes, at least one of which sent Muscovites scrambling for cover amid explosions and "black rain."

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has claimed Russia relocated the bulk of its air defenses to cover key areas, like central Moscow and a presidential residence, leaving other targets exposed.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin has acknowledged "problems" and "certain shortages" related to the strikes, but attempted to downplay their significance.
• Russian forces have also hit Ukraine hard, hammering Kyiv in overnight strikes that killed at least 21 people. Troops are also still attempting to push forward along the front lines in Donetsk, despite heavy casualties.

The big picture: Zelensky has repeatedly touted "long-range sanctions," a tongue-in-cheek reference to attacks on Russian assets hundreds of miles deep. Ukraine's tools and tactics have grown increasingly sophisticated over years of war.

• Clips shared this week on social media show Fire Point-made Flamingo missiles slamming into their targets, including the Titan-Barrikady plant where Russian artillery systems are made.
• Last summer, footage of the stunning Spiderweb operation showed small drones, smuggled over the border and strapped with explosives, zipping into parked and unsheltered warplanes.
• In major shifts from early in the war, Ukraine is relying largely on domestically produced drones and modified missiles, and is peppering areas like Moscow and St. Petersburg that are far from the border.

The latest: Kyiv has "dramatically taken the war to Russian territory in 2026 by orchestrating a series of short-, medium-, and long-range strikes to disrupt and destroy Russian logistics and supplies," according to a Center for Strategic and International Studies report shared Wednesday.

• This, it adds, is "classic air interdiction, though with drones and missiles — not airplanes."
• The same report estimated that Russia has suffered a massive 1.4 million battlefield casualties since its 2022 invasion.

Yes, but: It's been a long time coming, in part because of Western restrictions on what weapons could be used where, and how.

• And for every strike that proves successful, there are, of course, failures, as Russian interceptors and jammers do their job.

What we're watching: Zelensky claimed Ukraine was launching a 40-day operation to force Russia to the negotiating table. For now, there are few signs of diplomatic momentum.

Go deeper: Ukraine's defense minister warns Europe: Act now