Senate watches the House on reconciliation 3.0

Senate Republicans are warming to the idea of using a third reconciliation package to replenish the Pentagon's depleted weapons stocks.

Why it matters: They still view reconciliation 3.0 as Plan B.

• For now, though, they're willing to let House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) attempt the legislative equivalent of a triple axel: passing a rule, a short-term government funding bill and a budget resolution to unlock reconciliation.
• "The tale of the tape is going to be what the House can do," Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) said.
• "Can the House pass it? I don't think that's a done deal. It's not offset, so I think there's going to be some troubled water there."

But Republican senators aren't slamming the door on Johnson's plan, looking to keep Senate options open.

• "It's pretty clear that [Senate Minority Leader Chuck] Schumer would like to play shutdown politics," Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said. "So I don't have any problem with using reconciliation for that."
• "But beyond that, it gets pretty narrow, what I'd be willing to support."

Driving the news: President Trump is ramping up pressure on House Republicans to support the budget resolution ahead of a pivotal week on Capitol Hill.

• "I am asking all House Republicans to VOTE YES this week on the Budget Resolution, which is an important first step towards getting a Budget Bill," Trump wrote Monday on Truth Social.
• Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought will try to close the deal at the Republican conference Tuesday.
• The move is a clear signal the administration wants a fallback plan if the normal appropriations process isn't done by Oct. 1 — which looks increasingly likely.

Meanwhile, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will testify before the Senate Appropriations Committee on Tuesday to defend the administration's supplemental funding request, including tens of billions of dollars to replenish munitions used in Iran.

Between the lines: Senate Majority Leader John Thune is cautioning that reconciliation 3.0 still faces a steep climb, even if it clears the House.

• "Easier said than done," Thune (R-S.D.) told reporters.
• And not every Senate Republican is on board.
• "I am not a big fan of reconciliation whether it's 1.0, 2.0 or 3.0," Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said.

Zoom in: The White House has sent a list of spending anomalies to appropriators — a necessary step for Congress and OMB to advance a short-term continuing resolution.

• The move is a clear signal that the administration expects Congress to rely on a stopgap spending bill to avert a shutdown.
• That remains senators' preferred path.
• "I'd love a clean CR to get us through the election," Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) said.

Zoom out: Vice President Vance's private appeal to House Republicans last week did little to change the political math. Johnson faces a difficult challenge.

• The skepticism extends beyond the House. Some Senate Republicans want a larger package with more defense funding, while others insist that at least some of the roughly $95 billion in new spending be offset.
• The House proposal includes about $60 billion to replenish munitions and weapons stocks depleted by U.S. operations against Iran.

The bottom line: The Senate is waiting on the House while pursuing a two-track strategy: keep appropriations moving while keeping reconciliation in reserve if negotiations break down.

• "We either need to keep appropriations moving," Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) told Axios, "or it's reconciliation 3.0."