Democrats hit the anti-incumbency trap

Democrats are learning a hard lesson Republicans know all too well: The party out of power doesn't just ride the anti-incumbency wave — it can also get swept up in it.

Why it matters: The populist energy surging through the left after President Trump's return to the White House is roiling Democratic primaries and fueling establishment fears about the party's general election chances.

• Just ask Senate Republicans how that went for them in 2010, 2012 and 2022.

"We saw it in Missouri, we saw it in Indiana more than a decade ago," said Rep. Brad Schneider (D-Ill.), the chair of the center-left New Democrat Coalition.

• GOP candidates who were "off-putting" and held "positions that don't reflect the majority of the state" helped Democrats win two seats "that I don't think we would have otherwise," he said.

Driving the news: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) struck out for a third time this past week in its attempt to elevate a candidate in a Democratic House primary.

• Former state Rep. Amish Shah — whose grassroots, door-to-door campaigning tactics the DCCC does not believe are effective — prevailed over the party favorite, ex-TV journalist Marlene Galán-Woods.
• The DCCC ran a $500,000 joint ad buy with Galán-Woods and outside Democratic groups spent millions more to support her, but to no avail.
• Shah's win came after progressives Randy Villegas of California and Matt Dunlap of Maine defeated DCCC-backed rivals in primaries last month.

All three seats are key battlegrounds in Democrats' fight to retake the House in November.

• While Villegas and Shah are running to flip GOP-held seats, Dunlap is simply trying to hold retiring Rep. Jared Golden's (D-Maine) district.
• The DCCC added Dunlap rival Joe Baldacci to its "Red to Blue" program but it has not yet extended the same courtesy to Dunlap, which some observers see as a sign of their uncertainty about his chances.

Zoom in: Add that to Democrats' big mess in Maine, where populist left-wing darling Graham Platner dropped out earlier this month amid allegations of sexual assault, which he denied.

• Platner, a self-described oyster farmer, had won the Democratic nomination after muscling out Maine Gov. Janet Mills, the preferred choice of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.).
• Instead state party activists have turned to Troy Jackson, a progressive logger and state Senate majority leader who is already facing scrutiny over alleged angry outbursts during his time in the legislature.

What they're saying: "The reality is that socialism doesn't sell with most folks, and neither does their anti-American, anti-cop extremist rhetoric," Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) told Axios.

• "If we let socialists and their extremist message hijack the Democratic Party, then we risk losing the races we should win in November."
• Said Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio): "Most Americans ... want to know their leaders are going to work together and keep them safe. They don't like extremism, whether it comes from the left or the right."

The other side: Progressive Democrats say their candidates have tapped into voter angst and are well-positioned for November.

• "Anti establishment and anti status quo candidates give us the best shot in the midterms at a time when Americans view our politics as corrupt and our system as unfair," said Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.).
• "Running chatGPT bland centrists is not the answer."

Between the lines: While generic congressional ballot polling suggests Democrats are on track for a healthy victory in November, the state-of-play gets far less rosy for them upon closer inspection.

• This cycle's mid-decade redistricting war took a decisive turn in the GOP's favor after the Supreme Court narrowed the Voting Rights Act, enabling several Southern states to eliminate Democratic House seats.
• The redraws have made it so that House Democrats will need to scrap for every single seat they can get their hands on in order to cobble together a majority even if they win the national popular vote decisively.
• Senate Democrats were already staring down a difficult map that would require them to pick up seats in several states President Trump won in 2024 to take the majority.

What we're watching: One of Democrats' biggest headache this cycle is Michigan, which has primaries on Aug. 4.

• Centrist Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) and progressive Abdul El-Sayed are pummeling each other to be the Democratic candidate in what is sure to be a highly competitive U.S. Senate race.
• Establishment Democrats are petrified about an El-Sayed win, but Stevens has faced plenty of headwinds that have put her viability into doubt — most recently the ouster of a consultant who was moonlighting for Palantir.
• Further down the ballot, party leaders are fearful that a pair of moderates running to challenge Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Mich.) will split the vote and clear the way for progressive Will Lawrence to get the nomination.

The bottom line: Progressive candidates have shown they can win generals in reliably blue areas. November brings the bigger test, and the one causing establishment panic: whether they can succeed in the swing districts that'll decide who controls Congress.