2028 Democratic power rankings, right now

What Axios' Alex Thompson is hearing from Democratic insiders about the party's most likely 2028 Democratic nominees, as told to Jim VandeHei for his weekly Axios C-Suite newsletter:

1. Kamala Harris. She is far ahead of every other contender with Black voters, still the most important voting bloc in a Democratic primary. Her allies argue that no one else is as prepared for a national campaign. She was a better candidate in 2024 than in 2020 and is working hard to be a better, more authentic, less cautious candidate in 2028. Harris is likely a beneficiary of Democrats' preliminary choice yesterday of South Carolina, instead of Nevada, for the first Democratic presidential primary of 2028.

2. AOC. No one else can plausibly claim to be Bernie Sanders' rightful heir, and she channels where the energy of the party is right now. If Bernie endorses her on Day 1, she will raise $100 million without talking to a single donor. The question isn't whether she'd be a top contender, but rather whether she decides to run for Senate instead.

3. Gavin Newsom. He's the best political athlete in the field who can stand apart in the debates. He can convincingly argue that he's done more than any other Democrat to push back against President Trump at a time when Democrats feel powerless. With his longtime connections in Silicon Valley and non-doomer views, he'll also have access to deep pockets — but that California baggage is heavy.

4. TBD center-left candidate. Big business, the party establishment and some voters are desperate for a more moderate choice. They'll have many options, including Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, Rahm Emanuel, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear. At a time of populist anger, it's unclear how big this lane is — and if it's big enough for more than one candidate. Right now, it feels like an establishment fantasy.

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