Dem governors weighing White House face the DeSantis dilemma

Top aides for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' failed 2024 presidential campaign have a warning for Democratic governors eyeing a 2028 run: Don't wait too long after November's midterms to jump into the race.

Why it matters: In the coming months, Govs. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Wes Moore of Maryland, JB Pritzker of Illinois and Andy Beshear of Kentucky will face a dilemma similar to what confronted DeSantis after his 2022 reelection:

• Do they get in the race early — before their postelection legislative sessions start — and risk not being focused on their constituents? Or do they wait until late spring to rack up policy wins and give their opponents a head start on a White House run?
• Their allies and some of their teams are already debating which path to take, Democratic sources tell Axios.

Driving the news: Many DeSantis aides now regret how they handled the months between DeSantis' commanding reelection victory in November 2022 and his entry into the presidential race in late May 2023, several told Axios.

• Donald Trump announced his reelection bid in November 2022 and began attacking DeSantis while the governor was scoring state policy wins and promoting a new book — but falling behind in the presidential race.

"In this atmosphere, you can't be president by just being a great governor and boasting about your legislative wins," said Ryan Tyson, a Republican pollster and president of the Tyson Group who was a senior adviser to DeSantis.

• "That's how they did it in the '90s — not anymore. Enough of the voters in these early nomination contests will be driven by emotion more so than logic."

A former DeSantis aide added: "There were diminishing returns for DeSantis passing conservative legislation [in Florida's 2023 session] because of his preexisting, extensive record."

• "I don't think it's very helpful for a Democratic governor waiting to announce for 2028 to use the legislative session to just keep doing more of what they've already been doing," the former DeSantis aide said.
• "It would have to be new stuff to command media attention or fix a potential political vulnerability."

Reality check: The 2028 Democratic primary is different from the 2024 Republican primary.

• DeSantis was running against a former president who was still extraordinarily popular with the GOP base.
• The legal indictments against Trump led many Republican voters to rally around him.
• Trump also made the unorthodox move to go negative against DeSantis in paid and earned media before the Florida governor got in the race.

Between the lines: If Democratic governors declare their candidacies before their legislative sessions are over, they could face attacks from rivals in the presidential race in addition to rebellions within their states.

• Ambitious state legislators could hold up bills and criticize newly elected governors for focusing on national politics just months after winning reelection.

Axios asked Shapiro, Moore, Beshear and Pritzker if they had committed to finishing their state legislative sessions before declaring whether they were running for president.

• None of them directly answered the question.
• Shapiro spokesperson Manuel Bonder told Axios: "While we appreciate team DeSantis taking a break from banning abortion and rigging our democracy to offer unsolicited advice, I'll repeat what the governor has made clear: The midterms run through Pennsylvania, and the only thing we are focused on is winning up and down the ballot this November."