Ferrari Skids As Wartime Disruptions Hit Deliveries

Ferrari shares fell as much as 3% in Milan after first-quarter results showed stronger-than-expected profit and cash flow, but the beat was overshadowed by a plunge in deliveries in the Middle East, as the U.S.-Iran conflict disrupted shipments to one of the luxury automaker's key markets.

Ferrari's first-quarter results were broadly ahead of expectations on profit, revenue, and cash flow, but deliveries across EMEA, which includes Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, were the clear outlier.

Regional shipments fell to 1,458 units, down 14% year over year and well below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 1,651, underscoring a wartime-disrupted supercar market.

Here's a snapshot of the first quarter (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Ebitda EU722 million, +4.2% y/y, estimate EU710 million (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Ebitda margin 39.1%, estimate 39.3%

Ebit EU548 million, +1.1% y/y, estimate EU541.5 million Ebit margin 29.7% vs. 30.3% y/y, estimate 29.7%

Net income EU413 million, +0.2% y/y, estimate EU405.7 million

Industrial free cash flow EU653 million, estimate EU516.1 million

Diluted EPS EU2.33 vs. EU2.30 y/y, estimate EU2.30

Revenue EU1.85 billion, +3.2% y/y, estimate EU1.82 billion

• Cars and spare parts revenue EU1.56 billion, +1.3% y/y, estimate EU1.54 billion

• Sponsorship, commercial and brand revenue EU218 million, +14% y/y, estimate EU203.9 million

• Other revenue EU74 million, +16% y/y, estimate EU70.6 million

Deliveries 3,436, -4.4% y/y, estimate 3,520

• EMEA deliveries 1,458 units, -14% y/y, estimate 1,651 (2 estimates)

• Americas Deliveries 1,030 units, +0.8% y/y, estimate 1,043 (2 estimates)

• Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan 255 units, +7.6% y/y, estimate 253.18 (2 estimates)

• Rest of APAC deliveries 693 units, +9.5% y/y, estimate 630.23 (2 estimates)

Ferrari confirmed its 2026 guidance, citing strong order-book visibility toward the end of next year.

Goldman analyst Christian Frenes commented on the guidance, noting:

2026 guidance confirmed with room for upgrades: Ferrari confirmed its guidance for FY26 revenues of ~€7.5bn (cons €7.57bn, GSe €7.89bn), adj. EBIT of >=€2.22bn (€2.25bn, GSe €2.32bn) and ind. FCF >€1.5bn (cons €1.56bn, GSe €1.61mn). We continue to expect Ferrari to upgrade its conservative 2026 guidance in 2Q/3Q26 as we expect mix to continue to accelerate towards 2H26 supported by the ramp-up of the F80 supercar and the 296 Versione Speciale. On current guidance, the FY26-30 CAGR to FY30 targets is in line with CMD guidance of 5% on revenue as well as the EPS level, with any upgrades implying management's willingness to grow above the medium-term growth floor.

Other analyst commentary (courtsey of Bloomberg):

Jefferies (buy)

• Analysts led by James Grzinic say group has managed to limit margin unwind despite major FX headwinds and a quarterly trough in shipments

• Say there "should be no surprise from today's reiteration of 2026 guidance"

JPMorgan (overweight)

• Analysts led by Jose Asumendi write that it was overall a strong quarter

• Say want to better understand how firm plans to offset some FX and fixed cost headwinds during conference call

Oddo BHF (neutral)

• Analysts say the results are broadly in line with expectations

• This may be a "slight disappointment" as Ferrari is usually expected to beat and messaging was "quite bullish" in a pre- close call

• Focus will shift to any commentary in the call around effects of Middle East crisis

• "Order book is described as 'further extending towards the end of 2027,' vs 'towards 2027' at the time of the FY25 results report," they note

Bloomberg data show that 77.4% of Wall Street analysts covering Ferrari have a "Buy" rating, while 22.6% are "Neutral" and 0% are "Sell."

Ferrari shares...

Ferrari is set to unveil its fully electric supercar, the Luce, later this month. As we noted last week, sports car buyers are shunning hybrids and chasing V-8s and V-12s.