Novo Nordisk Soars After New Obesity Pill Momentum Lifts Guidance

Novo Nordisk shares jumped as much as 9% in Copenhagen, suggesting the stock may finally be bottoming out after a vicious multi-year bear market. The move followed the Danish drugmaker's decision to raise its 2026 guidance ranges for adjusted sales and adjusted operating profit, citing solid momentum in Wegovy sales.

Novo now expects full-year sales and profit declines of around 12%, down from a previous forecast of around 13%. The upgraded outlook was "driven by increased expectations for GLP-1 product sales," according to the company.

Here's a snapshot of the new full-year forecast, courtesy of Bloomberg:

• Sees adjusted change in sales at constant exchange rates -4% to -12%, saw -5% to -13%, estimate -7.63% (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Sees adjusted change in operating profit at constant FX -4% to -12%, saw -5% to -13%, estimate -8.26%

The key bright spot was momentum in the Wegovy pill:

• Wegovy pill was launched in the US on 5 January 2026, and for the week ending 17 April, total weekly prescriptions exceeded 200,000. Coupled with total prescriptions for Q1 2026 of around 1.3 million and now more than 2 million since launch, it marks the strongest-ever GLP-1 volume launch in the US. Q1 2026 sales for the Wegovy pill reached DKK 2,256 million, impacted by pre-launch pipeline fill with wholesalers and telehealth partners.

• Pending regulatory decisions, the first Wegovy pill launches outside the US are expected during the second half of 2026.

"We have seen more than 1 million people using the Wegovy pill," CEO Mike Doustdar told analysts on an earnings call earlier. He noted that patients are switching from competing products, with "limited cannibalization" of Novo's other drugs.

Still, Novo's overall business remains under pressure. First-quarter sales fell 10% to 70.1 billion Danish kroner, while adjusted operating profit dropped 15%. Diabetes drug sales fell 18%, with Ozempic hitting its lowest level in two years.

Novo is trying to regain momentum after losing market share to Eli Lilly's Zepbound injection.

Novo shares in Copenhagen jumped as much as 9%. Shares have been locked in a vicious, nearly two-year bear market, down 70% from their peak.

Analyst commentary, courtesy of Bloomberg:

Barclays (equal weight)

• Oral Wegovy was "off to a strong start," analyst James Gordon writes in a note.

• Sees questions on supply capacity when the pill launches in other countries, expected in 2H

• Sees FY consensus expectations being increased by low single- digits

BMO Capital Markets (market perform)

• The Wegovy pill "makes a splash" in its debut, analyst Evan Seigerman writes in a note.

• It's encouraging that roughly 15%-16% of pill patients are filling scripts for the highest dosages.

• This "could be a leading indicator for improved revenue going forward, given their higher price."

• Wegovy and Ozempic injectables also beat expectations, "showing more resilience in the face of competition within class"

Jefferies (hold)

• Although the 2026 guidance was nudged higher, it still leaves consensus expectations at the upper end of the range, analyst Michael Leuchten writes in a note.

• The change in guidance probably won't have a positive impact on consensus estimates.

• It could actually drag pretax profit and EPS expectations down a couple of percent.

Intron Health (sell)

• Sales beat expectations by 1%, driven by Wegovy pill stocking of ~$125m, analyst Naresh Chouhan writes in a note

• Meanwhile, gross margin was 30 bps worse than expected

Morgan Stanley (equal weight)

• 1Q sales were a "small" beat, driven by the Wegovy pill — helped by stocking — and international operations, analyst Thibault Boutherin writes in a note

• Lower operating costs helped the adjusted EBIT beat

• Still sees the bottom end of the guidance as "conservative" and expects the company to finish the year "in the upper half of the guidance."

Did Novo finally bottom?