Goldman Flags Troubling Mortgage Delinquency Rise Across This U.S. Region

Mortgage delinquencies fell slightly in March, with the first-lien delinquency rate declining to 3.35%, down 37 basis points from February, as seasonal factors and tax refunds supported borrowers.

The real estate and mortgage industry outlet HousingWire cited Intercontinental Exchange’s May 2026 Mortgage Monitor report, which showed that while the overall mortgage delinquency rate fell in March, there was still concern over serious delinquencies and foreclosures, which are up by 154,000 borrowers from one year ago.

The increase was driven mostly by FHA loans, which rose by 164,000 and now account for a record 55% of seriously past-due mortgages. Overall, 1.6% of active mortgages are seriously delinquent, up 20% year over year.

Adding to the mortgage delinquency story is Goldman analyst Jason Acosta, who released a note earlier today, showing what he described to clients as the "chart of the day."

The chart indicates that mortgage past-due rates are highest across parts of the Deep South, with Mississippi and Louisiana as the worst-performing states, followed by elevated stress in Alabama, Texas, Indiana, Georgia, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and others.

"On a national level, mortgage delinquencies eased in March, yet higher-severity stress remained elevated even amid the strongest monthly gain in U.S. home prices in two years," Acosta said.

He added, "We just released a new widget looking at past-due rates on a state-by-state basis below, with updates incoming to select between ranges of 30-59 days, 60-89 days, and 90 days+."

Here is the chart: What is the mortgage past-due rate by state?

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The read we have here is that mortgage distress is becoming increasingly concentrated in lower-income Southern states, even as the national delinquency rate improved modestly overall.