Is Take-Two Sandbagging Guidance Ahead Of Grand Theft Auto VI Launch?

Take-Two Interactive slumped in early U.S. cash session after the video-game publisher reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results but issued what some analysts described as a "conservative" outlook for the year, even as it reaffirmed the November 19 launch date for Grand Theft Auto VI.

TTWO's earnings, released Thursday evening, initially sent shares higher in the after-market, as traders focused on GTA VI remaining on schedule. However, shares fell once the cash session opened, as the market shifted attention to softer-than-expected guidance on bookings and TTWO's cautious fiscal-year assumptions.

Goldman analysts, led by Eric Sheridan, noted that the fourth-quarter report centered on optimism around its video game pipeline, including 29 planned titles through fiscal 2029 and the reaffirmed November 2026 launch date for Grand Theft Auto VI.

Sheridan said TTWO is expecting higher marketing expenses ahead of the GTA VI release, with Rockstar expected to begin its marketing campaign this summer.

The analyst outlined that traders will remain focused on GTA VI news flow, including potential trailer launches, pre-order data, marketing spend, and early title performance after release.

GTA 6 news summary today:

- November 19 is the final date
- Marketing starts in summertime (late June)
- Pre-orders will go live with marketing
- Strauss never specifically said a new trailer is part of marketing so Trailer 3 could drop before summer
- Take-Two expects $8… pic.twitter.com/9FsIymCvda
— GTA 6 Countdown ⏳ (@GTAVI_Countdown) May 22, 2026

However, potentially what's driving weakness in the stock today is that the outlook for both bookings and adjusted earnings was disappointing...

Positives: a) FQ4'26 Bookings came in above the high-end of guidance range, driven by outperformance across GTA, Red Dead Redemptio,n and continued momentum in the mobile portfolio; b) Solid RCS growth during the quarter (+7% YoY) was supported by continued engagement across GTA Online, mobile, and NBA 2K series; & c) Positive mgmt. commentary surrounding forward content slate, with the company highlighting a multi-year pipeline (incl. 6 additional titles during FY27 & 29 titles through FY29), alongside additional live service updates across key franchises.

Negatives: a) FQ1'27 Bookings guidance came in below GS/Street (FactSet) estimates, with mobile and the GrandTheftt Auto Series expected to decline (albeit offset by HSD % YoY growth for NBA 2K); b) mgmt. Guided to FY27 RCS growth being flat on a YoY basis - largely driven by the lapping of mobile growth during FY26 (and Color Block Jam success), offset by NBA 2K strength and GTA series growth; & c) Operating expenses expected to increase during FY27, driven by marketing spend and increased R&D investments.

1FQ27 & FY27 Estimate Changes:

1FQ27: Bookings of $1.37bn (from prior $1.55bn), Adj. EBIT of $78mm (from prior $8mm), & Adj. EPS of $0.29 (from prior $(0.06)).
FY27: Bookings of $8.08bn (from $9.51bn), Adj. EBIT of $1.40bn (from prior $1.76bn), & Adj. EPS of $5.89 (from prior $7.42).

1FQ27, FY27, FY28, & FY29 Estimate Changes

"We reiterate our Buy rating and raise our 12-month price target from $270 to $275 as we adjust our forward operating estimates for this earnings report and management's forward commentary," Sheridan said.

Separately, Citi analysts said, "Investors are likely pleased that GTA VI is still on track for a November 19 release date, and the 4Q26 results were robust." However, they also noted that the forecast for both bookings and adjusted earnings was disappointing, adding, "We suspect investors will take the guidance in stride, given some level of conservatism that's likely embedded in the FY27 outlook."

Vital Knowledge analysts made similar remarks: "While the bookings guide falls short of expectations, many feel this is just management being conservative."

Bank of America analysts also said the same thing, noting that FY27 guidance looks "overly conservative," arguing that the $8.2 billion sales guide implies only about 31 million GTA 6 units, or 21% console penetration.

One X user said that CEO Strauss Zelnick's forecast ahead of GTA 6 "is a generational sandbag" ...

Professional subscribers can read the full GTA VI note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/22/2026 - 12:00