HSBC Warns Of Commodity "Super-Squeeze" As Goldman Hikes Copper Forecasts

Copper is inching closer to its mid-May all-time high of $14,153 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, trading around $13,832 on Tuesday morning, as Goldman raised its year-end price targets and HSBC warned that commodities face a "super-squeeze" with the Hormuz maritime chokepoint still largely shuttered in early June.

Let's begin with HSBC analysts, who wrote in a note to clients that "metal prices are generally in an upswing, driven by supply disruptions for some commodities due to the Middle East conflict and strong structural demand."

They warned that commodities were facing a "super-squeeze" with the Strait of Hormuz still blocked.

HSBC's note comes after Goldman analysts led by Aurelia Waltham told clients Monday that the core issue with copper markets right now is supply:

• Year-to-date data does suggest that supply recovery from previous disruption events has trailed our expectations. Accordingly, we lower our 2026 global mine supply forecast by 350kt, equivalent to ~1.5% of global mine supply, including ~200kt less from Grasberg (Indonesia) and Kamoa-Kakula (DRC) combined, with neither returning to full capacity until 2028.

At the same time, she said stronger-than-expected US copper imports in the first half of 2026 are tightening the ex-US market:

• Furthermore, US copper imports in H1 2026 have exceeded our previous forecast, tightening the ex-US balance. As a result, we now expect US inventory to build by 900kt in 2026 (vs. 550kt previously), even as our base case remains that no copper tariff will be announced this year.

The combination of soft mine supply, US stockpiling, tariff uncertainty, and long-term demand tied to AI buildout and grid-upgrade themes prompted Waltham to upgrade her end-of-year 2026 and 2027 copper price forecasts:

• We raise our end-2026/average 2027 LME copper forecasts to $13,735/$13,800 from $12,465/$12,150 previously (vs. forwards at $13,630/$13,610).

She mapped out three price scenarios for copper:

1. Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed for Longer: While we would expect limited impact on the global copper balance as the demand hit from lower economic growth is largely offset by lower copper supply due to sulfur shortages, a substantial pullback in global risk appetite could push the LME price down to its fundamental support level at ~$12,600 in H2 2026, before resuming an upward trend.

2. US Copper Tariff Announced for January 2027: If a US copper tariff is announced prospectively in June 2026, to start in January 2027, we would expect US copper imports to accelerate in H2 2026 (vs. our base case of a slowdown in imports), tightening the ex-US balance and raising prices to over $14,000 in H2 2026. However, we would expect prices to retreat in 2027 as imports stop once the tariff is imposed.

3. Announcement of No Copper Tariff: A definitive decision against the tariff would reduce the size of our ex-US deficit forecast in 2026 and push the ex-US market back into surplus in 2027 as imports fall to a negligible level. In this scenario, we would expect the price to fall to an average of $12,800/t in 2027.

Mapped out here:

Professional subscribers can read the full copper note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

With Hormuz still all but shuttered and only a 22% chance that the critical waterway reopens by the end of June, according to a Polymarket bet, it would take many months, if not quarters, to normalize shipping flows. This indicates that the commodities cycle will likely remain bullish into early summer.