Is John Cornyn Trying To Sabotage Ken Paxton?

Texas Republicans handed Sen. John Cornyn one of the most humiliating defeats in the state's modern political history in this year's primary runoff. A week after being clobbered by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, he is amplifying a Libertarian candidate, in an apparent attempt to siphon conservative votes from Ken Paxton in the general election in November.

In a post on X, Cornyn shared a Houston Public Media interview profiling Libertarian nominee Ted Brown, whose 2026 Senate campaign is built around courting conservatives dissatisfied with the Republican primary results.

The article itself makes it very clear that Brown has the potential to be a spoiler for Paxton. "Most polling shows Texas' U.S. Senate race between state Attorney General Ken Paxton, the Republican candidate, and Austin state Rep. James Talarico, his Democratic opponent, as extremely close," it opens. "That potentially creates an opening for a third-party candidate, Libertarian Ted Brown, to shape the outcome."

Rut roh

Libertarian Ted Brown courts disaffected conservative voters in Texas' U.S. Senate race - Houston Public Media https://t.co/wZ9ipRviE1

- Senator John Cornyn (@JohnCornyn) June 2, 2026

Brown pulled more than 267,000 votes in the 2024 Texas Senate race, a record performance for a Libertarian candidate in the state, and Cornyn just handed him a megaphone.

Cornyn had initially signaled he would fall in line behind the GOP nominee.

"I've spent most of my time in the Senate building the Republican party in Texas and in the U.S. Senate, and I've always supported the Republican ticket, and I intend to do so again in this general election," he said when he addressed his supporters last week after the election results. "I've said throughout this race that I trust the voters of Texas, and they've made their decision, and I must respect it."

Since then, however, he has been walking back that pledge.

"I stand by everything I said during the whole campaign," Cornyn told reporters on Monday, and implied that Paxton can't win the race.

"I'd prefer a Republican to somebody like James Talarico," Cornyn said. "But I'm going to concentrate most of my efforts on trying to keep the Senate by helping some of what I consider to be the more winnable races around the country."

Brown understands exactly what he is doing. He told Houston Public Media he is appealing to voters who "aren't satisfied with the primary results." When asked about playing spoiler, he pushed back with characteristic flair: "Frankly, you can't spoil something that's rotten and putrid to begin with," Brown told Houston Public Media. He is clearly hunting for precisely the kind of voter a bitter, defeated incumbent might quietly nudge his direction.

Whether Cornyn intended that outcome or simply failed to think through the signal his post sent is almost beside the point. The effect is the same. A senator who lost to Paxton's MAGA-aligned coalition is now boosting a third-party candidate whose entire pitch rests on making conservatives feel justified in abandoning the Republican nominee.

Paxton enters the general election with real structural advantages. He has won statewide elections in Texas three times already, while his Democratic opponent, James Talarico, is introducing himself to Texans statewide, giving Republicans the advantage of defining Talarico based on his controversial statements and positions on gender and other issues out of step with mainstream Texas voters.

While polls suggest a tight race, the prediction markets see what's coming. Polymarket and Kalshi both give Paxton roughly a 60% chance of winning, compared to Talarico's roughly 40%. Talarico has never led in the prediction markets. Texas remains a fundamentally red state, and the fundamentals favor Paxton.

Promoting a Libertarian candidate who openly fishes for unhappy Republicans while simultaneously calling the Republican nominee a crook sends a message to Texas conservatives that it's okay not to back the Republican candidate, effectively validating the MAGA base's concerns about Cornyn.

While Paxton is still favored, Cornyn just made this race harder without delivering any discernible benefit to the party he claims to support. Talarico isn't the only person to gain from Cornyn amplifying the Libertarian targeting conservative voters. Cornyn himself may see a Paxton defeat as validation of his primary campaign message that he was the best candidate to lead the GOP to victory.