Goldman Hikes Obesity Drug Market Forecast As Oral GLP-1s Go Mass Market

The global weight-loss drug market is now expected to reach $114 billion by 2030, up from Goldman's prior $101 billion forecast, as analysts cite faster adoption of oral obesity pills, stronger demand outside the U.S., and improved affordability that is expanding the patient pool.

Goldman analysts led by Asad Haider and James Quigley laid out four main drivers behind the upgraded 2030 anti-obesity drug TAM forecast (previous forecast made in Dec. 2025):

1. Higher oral vs. injectable share and a higher oral TAM. With oral NBRx (new-to-brand) prescriptions (a leading indicator) now 40-50% following the strong launch of Novo's Wegovy pill, we now expect orals to represent 40% ($46bn) of the 2030 global revenue TAM (vs. 35%/$35bn prior).

2. Shifting sales mix within orals. We balance our share splits with Novo's Wegovy pill now 38% (vs. 16% prior), LLY's Foundayo now 48% (54% prior) and "other" now 14% (vs. 30% prior). We now forecast Wegovy peak global sales of $17.4bn (vs. prior $8bn) and Foundayo 2030 sales of $22bn (vs. prior $19bn).

3. Increased OUS penetration and a higher OUS TAM. Per stronger-than-expected OUS ramp for LLY's Mounjaro, we now forecast 2030 total OUS obesity sales of $48bn vs. $39bn prior, driving most of the higher 2030 Global TAM from $101bn to $114bn.

4. Updated pricing assumptions across channels. We lower pricing assumptions in the US DTC channel by 20% (to now $287 vs. prior $355) driven by lower prices across the board and higher oral mix shift.

Haider expects Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to control 82% of the global GLP-1 market share by the end of the decade.

The forecast assumes a larger shift towards oral obesity drugs.

Oral obesity drugs are expanding market share.

The oral Wegovy pill has had greater momentum since launch compared to Lilly's Foundayo.

Wegovy and Foundayo to dominate oral obesity drugs in the new forecast.

Medicare is expanding the patient pool. Goldman expects obesity coverage expansion to begin on July 1, through the GLP-1 MFN deal, modeling a potential 17 million-patient opportunity over time and $2.6 billion in Medicare-channel obesity sales in 2026, mostly skewed toward injectables.

The GLP-1 market outside the US is also set to become a major factor.

Rise of GLP-1s in China.

Goldman's revised GLP-1 TAM model for 2030 suggests obesity drugs are evolving from high-priced injectables into mass-market oral pills, broader international adoption, Medicare access, and lower consumer prices.

GLP-1 weight-loss drug headlines dominated the news cycle since 2021, with the initial hype cycle propelling Novo Nordisk shares in Copenhagen to record highs. That momentum has since sharply reversed as competitors and copycat drugs begin reshaping the market.

The question now, and certaintly analyst Quigley, is simple:

When does Novo finally bottom?

Professional subscribers can read the full GLP-1 TAM note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal