"This May Be Iran's First Misstep - And Proof Leverage Isn't Total"

Brent and WTI futures extended declines on Tuesday morning as momentum continued toward an end to the US-Iran conflict. The latest signs of de-escalation include a U.S. waiver allowing some crude and fuel sales from Iran, while Tehran said $12 billion in frozen funds had been released as part of ongoing talks with U.S. negotiators.

Both sides have signaled progress so far this week, further eroding the war premium in crude markets as traders begin to price in the flood of Iranian barrels hitting global markets, normalization of the Hormuz chokepoint, and a broader easing of geopolitical risk across the Persian Gulf.

Strait of Hormuz, this morning.

• 04:03 UTC: a cluster of commercial vessels holding convoy formation ahead of transit.
• 06:45 UTC: the same vessels underway and crossing south of Larak. pic.twitter.com/F1Yj9e0l7Q

— Windward (@WindwardAI) June 23, 2026

Brent fell to $77 a barrel after sliding 3.3% on Monday, while WTI traded around $73 a barrel.

On the Hormuz front, ship traffic continued to normalize as an increasing number of tankers and cargo ships broadcast their transponders on the critical waterway, signaling growing confidence among owners, traders, and insurers after last week's U.S.-Iran interim deal.

Maritime intelligence firm Windward posted part of a briefing on X early Tuesday, stating: "25 transits on June 22, including French- and Qatari-linked LNG carriers moving openly with AIS active. Iranian exports hit a two-month high of 6.79M barrels."

Continued:

• Iran reinstated PGSA toll and clearance requirements on June 21, attempting to re-close the Strait of Hormuz.
• Despite the announcement, 25 AIS-visible transits were recorded on June 22, including French- and Qatari-linked LNG carriers.
• Kharg Island resumed multi-berth crude loading, with Iranian exports reaching 6.79 million barrels during the week ending June 21, the highest level in nearly two months.
• A cluster of 17 tankers, including 10 OFAC-sanctioned vessels, was observed operating in the southeastern Hormuz corridor.
• Fujairah and Khor Fakkan remained heavily congested as operators continued waiting for clarity on transit conditions.
• Windward identified an extensive sanctions-evasion network linked to 38 vessels expelled from the Cameroon registry.

Iran moved to re-close Hormuz on June 21. The market answered.

Windward Maritime AI™ recorded 25 transits on June 22, including French- and Qatari-linked LNG carriers moving openly with AIS active. Iranian exports hit a two-month high of 6.79M barrels.

Operators are testing… pic.twitter.com/ruFW3HpTxB

— Windward (@WindwardAI) June 23, 2026

Eurasia Group senior analyst Gregory Brew commented on Windward's report, indicating, "This may be Iran's first misstep—and proof that its leverage isn't total. Iran announced the strait was closed, but it didn't *close* the strait. Without the credible threat of force, Iran's sway over the waterway has limits."

This may be Iran's first misstep--and proof that its leverage isn't total.

Iran announced the strait was closed, but it didn't *close* the strait.

Without the credible threat of force, Iran's sway over the waterway has limits. https://t.co/ox3aiiMWoL

— Gregory Brew (@gbrew24) June 23, 2026

To note, Brew is Eurasia Group's Iran and energy analyst, and if his assumption is correct, Tehran's massive leverage tool over global energy markets by closing Hormuz may be eroding.