Conference Board Consumer Survey Signals Ugly Job Market, Weakest 'Present Situation' In Over 5 Years

Amid a plethora of revisions (lower), The Conference Board's measure of Americans' Consumer Confidence rose very modestly in June (from 90.6 to 91.2 - a big miss on the headline print's expectation of 94.4).

However, while Expectations rose to their highest level of the year, the Present Situation tumbled to its lowest since March 2021...

“Consumer confidence inched up in June as falling oil prices in recent weeks provided some relief to consumer inflation fears,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.

“Consumer appraisals of current business conditions were slightly more positive compared to last month.

However, perceptions of the current labor market softened measurably as the percentage of consumers saying jobs were ‘hard to get’ rose to 22.5%, the highest level since January 2021 (22.8%).

Moreover, consumers anticipate little change in the labor market six months from now.

This was offset by improving expectations for business conditions and incomes.”

Consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations were less elevated...

Among age groups, confidence for consumers under age 35 remained the highest, but confidence for all age groups trended downward on a six-month moving average basis.

By income, on a six-month moving average basis, confidence was mixed or little changed across all categories.

By generation, confidence fell the most for the Silent Generation but was stable or lower for others on a six-month moving average basis.

By political affiliation, confidence among Independents and Democrats rose while Republicans were somewhat less positive on a month-over-month basis.

Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism in June.

References to prices and oil and gas eased in frequency but remain elevated. Mentions of war, geopolitics, and conflict eased, reflecting some easing of consumer concerns about the inflationary impacts of the war in the Middle East.