Trust Is Lost From Both Financial Markets And Sports

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

A couple of months ago I wrote that I had stopped actively trading, stopped sports betting, quit fantasy football and the likes. I also spoke out against the culture of gambling taking over our country. The reason? In short, it’s all fucking impossible to predict, there’s always going to be sharper money with better leans on short term bets.

Whether its massive 0DTE puts coming in on oil before a Trump ceasefire announcement or someone seeing Conor McGregor limping into the ring and knowing he already had a leg injury last night before his fight, the rigging of both sports and financial markets is now beyond obvious.

My column in May, one of the most read pieces ever published on my blog, wasn’t some dramatic life announcement or an attempt to prove anything to anybody. I had simply reached a point where I was exhausted by living inside a constant loop of anticipation, reaction, and emotional volatility. Looking back, I don’t think I appreciated just how much of my mental bandwidth was being consumed by things that were completely outside of my control.

Two months later, I can say without hesitation that stepping away has been one of the healthiest decisions I’ve made in years. I’m calmer and I can enjoy watching the news, the market and sports again innocently, without the excruciating worry that a last minute “meaningless” dunk in a basketball game or a Trump Truth Social post from the White House shitter at 3AM after a late night Big Mac binge is going to alter the course of my mood for the day.

My life has become noticeably quieter, and I’ve realized that quiet isn’t something to fear…it’s something to protect.

And if we needed another reminder why sports betting is such an absurd way to spend our money and attention, all anyone had to do was watch last night’s UFC main event. If you blinked, you may have missed it.

Millions of people spent months anticipating what was supposed to be one of the biggest fights of the year. Countless hours were spent breaking down fighters, studying betting lines, debating strategies, listening to podcasts, and trying to find a perceived edge. Instead, within moments it became obvious that something wasn’t right. McGregor looked compromised almost immediately, and what was supposed to be a memorable main event became a disappointment as quickly as it started.

Half the betting public celebrated because their tickets cashed. The other half immediately tore theirs up. But almost everyone walked away feeling cheated because the fight itself never really happened.

That, to me, perfectly summarizes modern sports betting. It makes sports hollow and meaningless to a degree. The entertainment itself gets replaced by financial outcomes. Instead of appreciating great competition, we’re constantly evaluating whether our bet is alive or dead. The event stops being the product. The wager becomes the product.

Then come the questions everyone is asking today. Was McGregor already injured before the fight? How serious was it? Who knew beforehand? Did the promotion know? Did his camp know? Were sportsbooks aware? Did sharp bettors pick up on information the public didn’t have access to?

Whether any of those questions have sinister answers almost doesn’t matter. The fact that they immediately become reasonable questions tells you everything you need to know about how fragile trust has become and how the perceived integrity of all sports is diminishing as a result of gambling. The average bettor is being asked to risk real money while operating with only a tiny fraction of the information that may actually determine the outcome.

The recent NBA gambling scandal is another obvious example. A growing federal investigation alleges that several current and former NBA players manipulated their own performances and leaked insider information to profit from prop bets, raising fresh questions about the integrity of the league.

Suddenly people aren’t just wondering whether a player had a bad shooting night, they’re wondering whether somebody knew something beforehand. Every integrity investigation, every suspicious betting line movement, every undisclosed injury chips away a little more at confidence that everyone is operating on a level playing field.

The Egypt-Argentina World Cup controversy offered another reminder. Egypt’s loss to Argentina became controversial because several crucial refereeing and VAR decisions went against Egypt, leaving its players and supporters convinced the match had been tilted toward Argentina.

Instead of talking about the quality of the match, fans spent days debating officiating decisions, stoppages, administrative confusion, and whether the competition itself had been handled fairly. Increasingly, sporting events seem to generate almost as much discussion about process and integrity as they do about athletic performance.

The average person has absolutely no idea where the informational playing field begins or ends anymore. If leagues, athletes, officials, betting syndicates, insiders and sportsbooks all potentially possess information before the public does, how exactly is the average fan supposed to believe they’re making informed decisions?

We’ve seen the same erosion of trust spill over into politics and financial markets. Over the last six months alone, there have been a string of remarkably well-timed options trades, commodity bets, and prediction market wagers placed just ahead of major Trump administration announcements on tariffs, geopolitical events, and other market-moving decisions.

At the same time, financial disclosures revealed that President Trump’s trust executed thousands of trades while he remained in office, including positions in companies directly affected by administration policy, which is to say nothing of the billions he has made from crypto.

The Trump Organization says those trades were made independently by outside managers, not by Trump or his family, and there is no public evidence proving wrongdoing. But I’ve been around markets long enough to know that when unusually well-timed trades repeatedly appear before major policy announcements, and elected officials continue actively trading while making market-moving decisions, it’s not hard to understand why so many people have started questioning whether the average investor is playing the same game as everyone else.

And then there’s central banks, governments and policymakers distorting markets to the point where fundamentals feel/are irrelevant. You can spend months researching a company, identifying valuation discrepancies and constructing a thoughtful thesis, only to watch everything change because one central banker decided to scratch his nuts the wrong way during a press conference.

Sports increasingly feels similar. Injuries are strategically disclosed. Officials make subjective decisions. Replay reviews change outcomes. Gambling markets move before news becomes public. League politics influence narratives. Every year the relationship between sportsbooks, leagues, broadcasters and gambling companies becomes more intertwined.

Eventually you begin asking yourself whether you’re actually analyzing sports or simply trying to guess what information everyone else has that you don’t.

That realization was enough for me.

More broadly, though, I think gambling itself is quietly becoming one of the defining cultural problems of our time.

Twenty years ago you had to make an effort to gamble. Today it is impossible not to be surrounded by it. Every commercial break promotes betting odds. Every sports broadcast has sponsored segments explaining parlays. Every podcast has a promo code. Every influencer suddenly has “locks of the week.” Live betting has transformed every possession into an opportunity to wager. Kids who barely remember a world without smartphones are growing up believing it’s completely normal to have money riding on every pitch of a baseball game or every possession in an NBA contest.

We have convinced ourselves this is harmless entertainment. That’s bullshit.

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We’re teaching an entire generation to experience sports through financial anxiety instead of appreciation. We aren’t encouraging patience or discipline, we’re encouraging impulsivity. Every moment becomes another opportunity to chase dopamine. Every near miss becomes an excuse to reload. Every loss becomes a reason to get even.

It’s the exact same psychological machinery that exists in day trading, prediction markets, leveraged crypto, online casinos and social media. The industries are different, but the business model is identical: monetize attention by keeping people emotionally activated every waking minute of the day. People celebrate that you can trade crypto 24/7. That’s a bug, not a feature.

Both markets and sports betting quietly train your brain to believe that stillness is failure and that boredom is something to eliminate instead of embrace. I don’t regret anything I wrote back in May. If anything, the last two months have reinforced every conclusion I came to.

Walking away has given me something that no winning ticket or successful trade ever consistently provided: peace. I still love sports. I still watch fights. I still follow markets. I still enjoy thinking about investing and writing about ideas. The difference is that I no longer need my emotional state to fluctuate with outcomes I can’t possibly control.

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QTR’s Disclaimer: Please read my full legal disclaimer on my About page here. This post represents my opinions only. In addition, please understand I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have been hand selected by me, have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR by their author, reprinted under a Creative Commons license with my best effort to uphold what the license asks, or with the permission of the author.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. If I’m long I could quickly be short and vice versa. I won’t update my positions.

As of May 20, 2026 I personally no longer actively trade (read my story here). My investing/saving is done by recurring contributions mostly to sector ETFs and a few select equities, trusted third parties who oversee my accounts, and advisors. Such advisors or funds, through individual equities, options, index funds, mutual funds, ETFs, or other securities, may have positions in, exposure to, or holdings of names mentioned herein that I know nothing about. Basically, via index funds, ETFs and individual equities it is possible I could own, have exposure to, or not own anything at any point. As of the same date, May 20, 2026, in an attempt to lead a healthier lifestyle, I’ve also excluded myself from fantasy sports, sports betting, online and in-person casinos and prediction markets.

And all positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. If you see numbers and calculations of any sort, assume they are wrong and double check them. I failed Algebra in 8th grade and topped off my high school math accolades by getting a D- in remedial Calculus my senior year, before becoming an English major in college so I could bullshit my way through things easier.

The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.