Despite Slumping Sentiment & Lower Gas Prices, The American Consumer Is Still Spending Strongly

While headline spend at gas stations is expected to decline (due to tumbling pump prices), BofA's almost omniscient analysts forecast a stronger than consensus print for today's US Retail Sales data.

After a big jump in May (revised up), June's Headline retail sales rose 0.2% MoM (as expected), with sales up 6.7% YoY (down modestly)...

Gasoline Stations sales saw the biggest decline (along with small drops in Health Personal Care and Food and Beverage). Nonstore Retailers saw the biggest jump in spend along with Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers...

That was the biggest monthly drop in gasoline station sales since Dec 2022...

Nonstore Retailers, Gasoline Station, & Motor Vehicle sales are the biggest drivers of annual (NSA) growth...

Core (Ex-Autos) fell 0.2% MoM and Ex-Autos and Gas rose 0.4% MoM (so declining gas spend was notable), but annual growth in spend remains strong...

Most notably, the Control Group - which feeds directly into the GDP calc - jumped 0.5% MoM (as expected)

Interestingly, 'real' retail sales (admittedly crudely adjusted via CPI) continue to rebound from a negative print in December to its highest since March 2022...

Finally, the American consumer appears to still be spending despite survey-based catastrophic slump in sentiment...

Admittedly, lower-income households have indeed felt the pinch of the gas shock more: they’ve seen a larger increase in necessary spending, which has led to a widening of the “K” in discretionary outlays.

Will that start to ease now that gas prices are starting to tumble? (although rising in recent days).