Winter Is Coming: The Work To Keep Us Warm Is Underway

Authored by Larry Behrens via RealClearEnergy,

As temperatures near 100 degrees across the country, the last thing on the minds of most Americans are worrying about is…heat.

Not the summer heat. The other kind.

Winter is coming, and in just a few months, millions of Americans will move from cranking up their air conditioners to firing up their furnaces. Fortunately, the same American energy source that kept millions cool during the recent heat wave is already preparing to keep them warm this winter.

Natural gas.

During the recent massive heat wave, electricity demand surged. It was natural gas leading electricity generation during peak hours in the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, New York, and New England. Even those leftist "keep it in the ground" blue hairs were cooled by fossil fuels.

The conclusion was hard to miss. When millions of Americans needed their air conditioners, natural gas showed up. That should not surprise anyone who remembers Winter Storm Fern just a few months ago.

As bitter cold spread across more than 30 states in January, electricity demand soared. At the height of the storm, natural gas, coal and nuclear combined to provide roughly 80% of America's electricity. Funny how quickly arguments about the "energy transition" disappear when the temperature drops below freezing.

So, with the next winter just a few months away, there is an important question to ask: How prepared is America to meet our natural gas needs when temperatures plunge?

The answer is encouraging.

Natural gas does not simply jump out of the ground and into your furnace on the first cold night of December. The gas that will keep homes warm this winter is extracted, processed, and transported months before most Americans even think about turning on the heat.

That work is happening right now.

As of July 3, the U.S. had 2,983 billion cubic feet of working natural gas in underground storage, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). That is 185 billion cubic feet above the five-year average, a surplus of 6.6%.

The EIA forecasts that American working natural gas inventories will reach 3,966 billion cubic feet by the end of October, leaving the nation 5% above the five-year average. Those healthy inventories should help limit upward pressure on prices. The EIA projects the benchmark price during the fourth quarter will be 5% lower than last year.

American Energy Dominance earns money and saves money.

U.S. natural gas production is expected to reach a record 111.25 billion cubic feet per day in 2026, up from 107.65 billion cubic feet per day last year.

The combination of record production and above-average storage puts America in a position of strength. It means greater reliability for families, a stronger buffer against unexpected cold and better protection against price spikes. And the importance of American natural gas does not stop at our borders.

U.S. natural gas exports reached a record in 2025. American LNG exports alone surged 26% last year, accounting for 26% of all global LNG exports. The EIA expects them to climb even higher this year.

That matters because America's allies need reliable energy too, and the alternative is often ugly.

Europe's imports of Russian gas rose 18% in 2024. During the third year of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the European Union spent €21.9 billion buying Russian fossil fuels, more than the €18.7 billion in financial aid it sent to Ukraine in 2024.

Apparently, helping fund Putin's war machine is a regrettable necessity, but building another pipeline in America is where some environmental activists draw the line.

The irony would be funny if the stakes were not so high.

American natural gas gives our allies another choice. Every additional molecule America produces and can deliver to the world strengthens our economy while reducing the leverage of hostile regimes. Energy security is national security, and nations that cannot produce their own energy eventually find themselves at the mercy of those who can.

Of course, there are no guarantees in winter. A historic cold snap can still strain supplies and send prices higher. But America enters the coming winter in a position of strength: nearly 3 trillion cubic feet already in storage, record production underway and forecasts showing inventories well above average when the heating season begins.

Winter is coming.

And while most Americans are still thinking about air conditioning, American energy workers are already preparing for the first bitter night of January. America is fortunate to have abundant natural gas. We are even more fortunate to have the energy workers who make sure it is there when we need it most.

That's American Energy Dominance. This winter, millions of Americans will be warm because of it.

Larry Behrens is an energy expert and the Communications Director for Power The Future. He is also author of the new book "Power Restored: President Trump's First Year and the Revival of American Energy Leadership." You can follow him on X/Twitter @larrybehrens