Unitree Founder Sees Humanoids Going "Mass Market" Within Decade As IPO Rally Fades
Lower US long-end yields, a softer dollar, and SK Hynix's share buyback announcement stabilized sentiment across Asian markets. However, shares of Chinese humanoid robot maker Unitree erased some of those massive 460% gains following Wednesday's blockbuster debut.
Risk appetite was also tempered after President Trump declared "Economic D-Day" against Iran and threatened severe consequences for any country providing support to Tehran. Against that backdrop, investors may continue rotating toward safer (see here), higher-quality companies with limited exposure to geopolitical and macroeconomic shocks.
Turning to the world's top humanoid robot maker by global deliveries, founder Wang Xingxing told the World Robot Conference in Beijing that mass-market adoption of these robots will be achieved within the next decade. That timeline is broadly in line with the forecasts we have provided readers from multiple institutional desks.
Wang said demand is likely to accelerate once robots can complete 80% of tasks assigned through voice commands in unfamiliar surroundings. He expects that threshold to be reached within two to 10 years.
The founder said humanoids already perform well under controlled conditions, but their performance deteriorates when objects or surroundings shift even slightly. He noted that this lack of versatility leaves current models trailing human workers.
According to Unitree's IPO prospectus, one of the company's major priorities is advancing the "humanoid brain," or embodied AI. About half of the IPO proceeds will be invested in improving the intelligence of its models.
Unitree shares in Shanghai closed down nearly 19% on Thursday after surging 460% on Wednesday. The IPO was 5,550 times oversubscribed as retail demand went through the roof.
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Ian Ma said, "Unitree's debut surge signals strong appetite for China's embodied AI sector," adding that the IPO proceeds should accelerate product development and commercialization.
Unitree's IPO sucked liquidity out of other robotics stocks tracked by the Solactive China Humanoid Robotics Index (Bloomberg ticker: SOLCHRBP Index). The index fell 2.5% on Thursday and is down more than 27% on the year.
Related:
Smart Analytics Global said global humanoid shipments tripled to 19,100 units in the first half from 5,100 a year earlier. The research firm expects deliveries to reach roughly 60,000 this year and climb to 500,000 by 2030.
The estimates are similar to those from major institutional research desks, including UBS, whose most bullish forecast projects nearly 400,000 global deliveries by the end of the decade.
Via UBS.
Our latest notes dissecting the humanoid robot value chain and examining how to profit from the key companies that manufacture critical components, such as motors and actuators, show that many of these companies are based in Asia, more specifically in China.
Read:
- Physical AI Faces One Critical Chokepoint, And Here's How To Profit
- Digging Deeper Inside Physical AI's Hardware Stack Powering Humanoids
The short answer to whether Trump can close the gap with China in the humanoid race is difficult, given that the US lacks robust supply chains for motors, actuators, and other critical components, and building those supply chains could take years.
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