Existing Home Sales Slump (Again) In August, Supply Hits 10 Year High

Existing home sales tumbled for the 3rd straight month in August, falling 2.0% MoM, sparking its biggest annual decline since January...

This implied an annualized rate of 3.98 million in August, marking one of only two times since the fall of 2024 that sales have dipped below 4 million...

“Mortgage rates and home sales move in opposite directions, so it's not surprising to see a mild dip in home buying activity due to high mortgage rates,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

“Still, home prices are rising, and existing home sales are actually up 1.6% year-to-date through the first eight months of the year..." Yun noted.

"Homebuying demand, despite higher interest rates, is no doubt being supported by rising wages, which grew 3.1% in August, along with 643,000 net new jobs added since the start of the year. Job creation and wage growth typically drive housing demand.”

The median sales price rose 1.6% from a year ago to $429,100, extending a streak of annual price increases dating back to mid-2023.

Finally, and more ominously, Yun continued, “The number of months it would take to exhaust the total inventory at the current sales pace has grown to 4.9 months’ supply - its highest level in over ten years. The ample supply of homes for sale on the market is giving homebuyers better opportunities to negotiate.”

A rate-hike is just what the housing market wants (or will Warsh's credibility be regained and lower the long-end?)