Inside House Democrats' fear-driven turn against Israel

Last week's dramatic showdown over cutting U.S. aid to Israel offered a glimpse into just how profoundly progressive anger is reshaping Democratic politics.

Why it matters: It's not just that the left is winning seats — they're ousting incumbents and instilling panic among House Democrats, who fear they may be next if they don't take a more hostile posture toward Israel.

• "Our primary victories this cycle defeating AIPAC-backed candidates ... is forcing the Democratic caucus to finally heed the calls of their voters," said Usamah Andrabi, a spokesperson for Justice Democrats.
• It's a reality the pro-Israel center sees as well. "This is no longer about substance," Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) tells Axios, "It's about the raw fear of pissing off the far left."

Driving the news: On Wednesday, 103 House Democrats voted in favor of an amendment to a State Department funding bill that would have prohibited any of the money from going to Israel.

• At issue for many Democrats was the fact that the amendment, introduced by Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), made no carveout to preserve non-military diplomatic funding.
• Still, many Democrats who had substantive concerns with the measure voted for it anyway. They said they wanted to send a message to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over his actions in Gaza and Lebanon.

What we're hearing: One swing-district House Democrat who voted for the amendment cited a "shifting of attitudes around Israel ... over the past year," and said they "want to be a good reflection of my district."

• "The American people are like, 'These are our tax dollars,' and they see the devastation, 85 percent of homes in Gaza are destroyed," the lawmaker told Axios.
• Another House Democrat who voted for the measure said the defeats of several pro-Israel lawmakers in primaries this year "reinforced for people the depth and breadth of the change in public opinion."

What they're saying: "Obviously what's happening politically around the country has impact on members of the House," said former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), who opposed the amendment.

• Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.), who also voted "no," told Axios that political pressure "probably" played a role. "I think Israel is in trouble," he said.
• "As long as Netanyahu is in charge, there are going to be many votes against Israel funding or support," Cohen added.

The intrigue: The vote put House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) in the minority of his own party. He was among the 98 Democrats who voted against the measure.

• A former House Democrat told Axios some current lawmakers have fumed to them that Jeffries "is not reading the moment of where the party is now."
• But a House Democrat who was involved in efforts to sink the amendment said Jeffries' letter opposing it "made a huge difference" and "picked up like 30 to 40 people" who were on the fence.
• There would have been more votes for the amendment had Jeffries not spoken out, the lawmaker said, estimating that as many as 150 Democrats might have supported it in that scenario.

Asked by reporters Thursday whether the vote is evidence he is out of step with the direction his party is going on Israel, Jeffries responded, "Ask me a serious question and I'll give you a serious answer."

The bottom line: "There's no good marketing for what's going on there ... and more people at home are speaking out on it," a House Democrat who opposed the amendment told Axios.

• "There's no good political play here," the member said.