Exclusive poll: GOP's gains among Latinos fade in House battlegrounds

Democrats have gained sharply with Latino voters in some of the country's most competitive House districts since 2024, a new Hart Research/TelevisaUnivision poll shared exclusively with Axios shows.

Why it matters: President Trump came close to erasing Democrats' longtime advantage among Latinos in the last presidential election. Now, with control of Congress at stake and Trump's approval ratings hitting new lows, that breakthrough appears to have eroded.

• Coming out of the 2024 election, Republicans hoped Trump's near-parity with Democrats among Latinos in 2024 would harden into a lasting political realignment favoring the GOP.
• Instead, this poll and surveys earlier this year suggest that the nation's fastest-growing swing electorate is moving left, as anger at high prices and Trump's immigration policies appear to be giving Democrats an opening.

By the numbers: Democrats are gaining ground with Latino voters across a survey of 17 competitive House districts, opening a 58%-35% lead on the generic congressional ballot, according to the Hart Research for TelevisaUnivision poll.

• That 23-point margin is double the 11-point edge Kamala Harris held over Trump in the same sample's self-reported 2024 vote.
• Among Spanish-language media consumers, Democrats lead the 2026 generic ballot by 14 points, compared with a 1-point Trump edge in the group's self-reported 2024 vote.

Zoom in: In three Texas congressional districts — one on the Mexico border, another in suburban Fort Worth and another in the Austin-San Antonio corridor — Latino voters went from a self-reported 44-44 split in the 2024 presidential race to 56-36 in Democrats' favor today.

• In Florida, Latino voters in two swing districts have gone from Trump +1 to Democrat +13 in the same period, the poll found.

The intrigue: 11% of Latino voters who say they backed Trump in 2024 now support Democratic congressional candidates.

State of play: Overall, Trump is deeply underwater with Latino voters in these battleground districts.

• 63% disapprove of his overall job performance, compared with 36% who approve.
• 65% disapprove of Trump's handling of prices and the cost of living, while 62% disapprove of his administration's immigration enforcement and deportations.
• That marks a striking reversal from 2024, when Trump's gains with Latino voters helped produce the most racially diverse Republican presidential coalition in decades.

What they're saying: "Latino voters aren't locked into one party. They're paying close attention and making decisions based on who shows up for them, and how they're showing up," TelevisaUnivision Senior Vice President Kate Coleman tells Axios.

• Aileen Cardona-Arroyo, a partner at Hart Research, tells Axios the survey showed Spanish language media is critical for engaging Latino voters in 2026 competitive congressional races.

Trump's immigration crackdown appears to have run into a wall with these voters — without producing a wholesale rejection of strict border enforcement.

• ICE has a 64% unfavorable rating, including 65% among Latino independents.

Zoom out: The economy still outranks immigration as Latino voters' top concern, the survey indicates.

• Democrats hold an advantage on the issue that helped Trump make gains among Latinos two years ago: 62% trust Democrats in Congress more to lower prices, versus 36% who trust Republicans more.

Methodology: The 2026 Latino Battleground survey included 1,500 Latino registered voters in 17 battleground congressional districts and was conducted Aug. 6-17, 2026, by Hart Research for TelevisaUnivision.

• The margin of sampling error is ±2,5 percentage points for Latino adults at the 95% confidence level.