"Voters don't trust Jeffries": Democratic leader faces impending fight with the left

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) faces mounting behind-the-scenes frustration from progressive lawmakers and candidates that's likely to burst into public view after the midterm elections.

Why it matters: Unless Democrats win a big enough House majority in November to govern without the progressive wing, a Speaker Jeffries would have to contend with the left flank's demands.

An influx of Democratic Socialists of America-aligned members in January will compound latent distrust of Jeffries that's festering in some corners of the Congressional Progressive Caucus.

• "He's got a lot of people mad at him," a senior House Democrat, speaking on the condition of anonymity to share details of sensitive private discussions, told Axios.
• Mai Vang, a progressive House candidate in Northern California, told Axios: "Voters don't trust Jeffries."

Driving the news: Jeffries has made several recent moves that left Progressive Caucus members fuming, according to multiple lawmakers, candidates and aides.

• Medicare for All: Jeffries said on NBC's "Meet the Press" last month that Medicare for All is "not legislation ... that I support." He said in a later radio interview that he supports universal coverage, but there are "different paths" to get there.
• Kushner meeting: Jeffries' sit-down with President Trump's son-in-law rankled progressive groups. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) told reporters: "I don't know what that was about."
• Rule change: A proposal to penalize members who don't pay their dues to the party's campaign arm, or who break with leadership on procedural votes, was seen by progressives as a preemptive attempt to cut off dissent from the left.

Combine this with long-standing progressive skepticism toward Jeffries, and you get all the ingredients for internal turmoil come Jan. 3.

• "Constituents have shared with me that House Democrats need to replace Jeffries," said Vang, who's running in the Sacramento area. "That's something I've heard from voters."
• A senior Progressive Caucus member told Axios they "consistently hear from constituents how displeased they are with the Democratic leadership, including Leader Jeffries."

Between the lines: Sitting congressional progressives have largely held their fire against Jeffries over the last two years. That may change after Election Day on Nov. 3.

• Said the senior House progressive: "His latest comments and actions put members with dissatisfied constituents in a difficult position — do we represent our constituents or defend his leadership?"
• The frustration is "bigger than the new crop of folks," a second senior House progressive said.
• A third told Axios: "Democrats nationally want to see big changes, and that's what the caucus is going to be responding to."

Zoom in: Medicare for All is proving to be the most persistent sticking point for progressives, who say they're not going to drop the issue despite Jeffries' stated opposition.

• Ocasio-Cortez told Axios: "The fact is, the majority of the Democratic caucus supports Medicare for All ... That, of course, is a dynamic that will be part of an ongoing conversation."
• Said Rep. Lateefah Simon (D-Calif.): "We all deserve ... a health care system that everybody can afford, and we'll just keep fighting for that."
• A fourth House progressive, granted anonymity to speak bluntly, said they "don't fucking get" Jeffries' refusal to support Medicare for All given that the party base has moved "very clearly to the left on so many issues."

Jeffries has stressed that his lack of support for Medicare for All is more about maintaining his neutrality as party leader than specific opposition to the policy itself.

• Jeffries, a former Progressive Caucus member, had been a co-sponsor of Medicare for All legislation until he became leader in 2022.
• "Consistent with what other leaders or speakers have done, when it comes to major pieces of legislation, we [as House minority leader] let the [House Democratic] caucus work out its will to try to actually get to a consensus position," he said in the radio interview last month.

Brad Lander, the progressive former New York City comptroller who unseated Rep. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) in June, pointed to Israel as another likely area of division between progressives and leadership.

• "We don't want to send additional military aid to Israel while it continues a policy that I do believe is genocide," he said in an interview. "Those of us that ran on that platform, of course, will make our voices heard loud and clear in internal debates and conversations."

Yes, but: A fifth Progressive Caucus member acknowledged that while "there is frustration," Jeffries has been addressing internal dissent in real time.

• "People reach out to him, and they have good conversations, and they move forward," the lawmaker said. "We try to hash things out immediately, and he's really open to having those conversations. He's spoken to a lot of people."

The bottom line: Watch what happens on Nov. 4, the day after Election Day.

• "When we win the majority, we'll know we have won it with a huge amount of progressive energy," said Progressive Caucus chair Greg Casar (D-Texas).
• Progressive members, he said, "will make sure our party better holds the line on key progressive issues."