Goldman Cuts ARM To Sell On Shocking Smartphone Weakness

Arm Holdings ADRs sank nearly 9% in premarket trading, on track for the largest intraday decline in almost a year, after the chip-architecture company reported softer-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter royalty revenue tied to a slowdown in the smartphone industry, while assuring investors that data center demand can offset the slump.

During an earnings call, Wells Fargo analyst Joe Quatrochi asked Arm CEO Rene Haas:

"Clearly, data centers are very strong and accelerating, but then how do you think about consumer electronics, smartphones, et cetera?"

Haas responded:

So in terms of Q4, as we said before the quarter, we had a bit of a tough comp in that. We had a particularly strong ramp of maybe 400 [ph], a year ago, more so than what we expected this year.

As a result, you saw a bit of a slowdown in royalty revenue. As indicated by our guidance, we're expecting that to get back to the kind of 20% range by Q1.

So I would say within -- you know, the assumptions within our expectations are, we will probably continue to see unit growth, I think actually flip to negative for the mobile market in this last quarter. We're going to continue to see very flattish, maybe slightly negative numbers for the overall market.

Haas' comments about the smartphone slowdown are key because Arm's smartphone exposure remains large, and mobile application processors accounted for about 46% of its total royalty revenue in 2025.

Haas has made clear to analysts that the push into data centers and other markets will help offset Arm's high exposure to a softening smartphone market.

Royalties, a closely watched metric for Arm, generated $671 million in fourth-quarter revenue, missing the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of $693.3 million.

"We're seeing the acceleration of Arm being a significant player in the data center," Haas said in an interview, quoted by Bloomberg.

As for the rest of fourth-quarter earnings, Arm beat on total revenue, adjusted EPS, operating income, margins, and licensing revenue. Revenue rose 20% year over year to $1.49 billion, slightly ahead of estimates, while adjusted EPS of 60 cents beat the 58-cent estimate. Adjusted operating income also beat at $731 million, with a very strong operating margin of 49.1%.

The strongest part of the report was license and other revenue, which jumped 29% year over year to $819 million, well above estimates of $775.6 million. That suggests strong customer demand for future Arm designs, particularly in AI, data centers, and new chip programs.

But as we noted above, royalty revenue missed expectations ...

Here's a snapshot of the fourth quarter (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Adjusted EPS 60c vs. 55c y/y, estimate 58c

EPS 29c

Total revenue $1.49 billion, +20% y/y, estimate $1.47 billion

• License and other revenue $819 million, +29% y/y, estimate $775.6 million

• Royalty revenue $671 million, +11% y/y, estimate $693.3 million

Annualized contract value $1.66 billion, estimate $1.58 billion

Adjusted net income $641 million, estimate $624.3 million

Adjusted gross profit $1.47 billion

• Adjusted gross margin 98.3%, estimate 98.1%

Adjusted operating expenses $734 million, estimate $743.6 million

Adjusted operating income $731 million, estimate $696.4 million

• Adjusted operating margin 49.1%

Adjusted free cash flow $152 million, estimate $374 million

Arm’s first-quarter forecast is broadly in line on revenue, better on earnings, and better on costs (courtesy of Bloomberg):

Sees revenue $1.21 billion to $1.31 billion, estimate $1.25 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)

Sees adjusted EPS 36c to 44c, estimate 37c

Sees adjusted operating expenses about $760 million, estimate $803.1 million

In markets, Arm ADRs sank nearly 9%, the largest intraday decline since July 31, 2025, of -13.5%. On the year, shares are up 117%.

Goldman analyst James Schneider told clients following earnings, "We expect the stock to be range-bound following revenue and EPS guidance that was just above the Street, with an increase to demand expectations for the company's CPU business."

"We are Sell rated on ARM given our concerns around the near-term pressures in the royalty business, the lack of clear competitive advantage relative to peers in chip manufacturing, and elevated valuation relative to peers - but could be more constructive if we see greater evidence of an acceleration in royalty growth or more visibility into greater scale in chip manufacturing," Schneider added.

Additional analyst commentary (courtsey of Bloomberg):

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Kunjan Sobhani

• "Arm's fiscal 4Q results reflect a mixed near-term setup, with handset and memory-related weakness weighing on royalties, but partly offset by persistent AI strength."

Daiwa analyst Louis Miscioscia

• Arm's royalty revenue missed due to a shortfall in lower-end cell phone demand, which was weaker than expected due to the higher cost of memory.

Evercore ISI analyst Mark Lipacis (outperform, price target $326)

• Lipacis was more bullish, saying that after examining other trillion dollar market cap companies, believe "ARM has the similar necessary ingredients to cross that $1T threshold themselves"

Bloomberg data shows most of Wall Street is bullishing on ARM... Goldman and AlphaValue are the only with "Sell" ratings ... 

Professional subscribers can read the full GS Earnings ARM note here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal