Could Deep Blue California Elect A Republican Governor?

Authored by Brad Jones via The Epoch Times,

As tensions mount in the high stakes race for California governor, early results show Republicans have returned more than 905,000 ballots ahead of the June 2 primary election—a massive surge compared with the last governor’s race during the 2022 midterms.

Ballots from Republicans made up 37 percent of the early ballot returns—up 11 percent from four years ago at this point in the primary process, while those from Democratic voters have dropped by 13 percent, according to a Political Data (PDI) poll released on May 16.

Most of the ballots submitted so far—54 percent—were cast by voters 65 and older, while about 10 percent of voters ages 18-34 have returned early ballots.

The Real Clear Politics polling average shows Republican Steve Hilton, a political commentator, and Democrat Xavier Becerra, former Health and Human Services secretary, essentially tied, each with about 20 percent of the vote, followed by Democratic billionaire and environmental activist Tom Steyer at 14 percent and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco with 13 percent. The rest of the candidates show less than 10 percent support.

Hilton has publicly pressured Bianco to drop out of the race to avoid splitting the Republican vote, ensuring that at least one GOP candidate—himself—advances to the general election. But at the CBS-hosted televised debate on April 28, Bianco rejected the notion, saying he and Hilton will both be on the Nov. 3 ballot.

‘Break the Glass’ Strategy

Meanwhile, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is terming out, told reporters at his recent state budget presentation he’s confident a Democrat will be on the Nov. 3 ballot.

Newsom alluded to a “break the glass” strategy to prevent a Democrat lockout in the nonpartisan, jungle primary, which allows the possibility of two Republicans—no Democrats—on the general election ballot.

“I don’t anticipate this need to be the case, but there’s a like break-the-glass scenario,” he said. “There’s many people that have a deep understanding of what it would look like if Democrats were locked out, and we’re going to do everything to make sure that doesn’t happen.”

The Democratic Governors Association has recently sent out mailers positioning Hilton as the top GOP threat, which could drive Bianco supporters to Hilton, making it more likely for a Democrat to finish in the top two.

“The Democrats wouldn’t be spending money trying to help Steve if they weren’t scared of me,” Bianco posted on X.

Steve Hilton speaks during a gubernatorial candidate forum in Sacramento on April 14, 2026. Godofredo A. Vásquez/AP Photo

Democratic Strategy Favors Hilton

Rob Pyers, a nonpartisan political analyst and research director for California Target Book, suggested the Democrats prefer to run against Hilton.

“The Democratic Governors Association really wants GOP voters to know that Steve Hilton is ‘Endorsed by Trump’ and ‘Pro MAGA’, and that they would be devastated if he advanced out of California’s top two primary alongside a Democrat,” Rob Pyers wrote on X.

When Amy Reichert, a San Diego based conservative activist, asked if the mailer from the Democrats was only mailed to Republicans to bump Hilton to the top two spot, Pyers said that “appears to be the case.”

Pyers replied that the “attack ads” contain “language tailored to appeal to conservative primary voters and to highlight Hilton’s Trump endorsement.

He noted that a Democrat versus Democrat race “would suck up hundreds of millions of dollars” that could be spent elsewhere.

“A D vs R race, not so much,” he wrote.

Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco fields questions from reporters and students following the California Governor’s Debate hosted by CBS at Pomona College in Claremont, Calif., on April 28, 2026. Brad Jones/The Epoch Times

Bianco’s Response

Bianco said in a text message to The Epoch Times on May 18 that Californians are voting differently in this election because they’re tired of dishonesty and corruption and “are absolutely sick of politicians rigging the system for their own benefit.”

“Newsom has never said one word in the past when two Democrats have moved on to the general elections,” he said.

“Saying the corrupt part out loud, exposing their plans to again rig the system, is exactly why people are voting different,” he said.

Corruption Scandal

As Health and Human Services (HHS) secretary during the Biden administration, Becerra has come under fire from critics who blamed him for putting migrant children at risk of trafficking when the agency lost track of 85,000 migrant children.

During his tenure at HHS from March 19, 2021, to Jan. 20, 2025, Becerra also faced scrutiny over tenuous ties to a corruption scandal involving his former aide Sean McCluskie, who pleaded guilty to his role in an alleged scheme to skim funds from a dormant campaign account for a “no-show” job for his wife.

A Fair Political Practices Commission (FPPC) complaint against Becerra over the alleged violation of state campaign finance laws remains open and unresolved. The complaint hinges on Becerra’s dormant state Attorney General campaign funds, which were allegedly used to pay out tens of thousands of dollars to his former adviser’s firm months after Becerra was appointed HHS secretary.

Political consultant Dana Williamson, Newsom’s former chief of staff, has also pleaded guilty in the case, admitting to conspiracy to commit bank fraud and wire fraud, subscribing to a false tax return, and making false statements to a federal agent.

California gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra at a campaign event in Los Angeles on April 18, 2026. Jae C. Hong/AP Photo

Becerra has not been charged with any crimes or been accused of any wrongdoing related to the federal investigation, and has repeatedly denied any knowledge of illegal campaign fund transfers.

He also faced scorn over his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Some recent polls, including an Emerson poll, show Becerra with a slight lead while others show Hilton is the frontrunner.

Becerra surged into the lead among Democratic voters when disgraced then-congressman Eric Swalwell dropped out of the governor’s race in April amid sexual assault allegations. Swalwell resigned from Congress about a week later. Swalwell is under investigation but no criminal charges have been filed to date.

Official primary ballots list 61 candidates for governor, including Swalwell and former state controller Betty Yee, who has also dropped out of the race.

Political Predictions

According to Polymarket, an online betting house which claims 90-percent accuracy in predicting event outcomes one month ahead and 94 percent four hours before an event, the odds favor Becerra with a 58 percent chance of winning the election in a Democrat versus Democrat race in the Nov. 3 election followed by Steyer with a 28 percent chance. Hilton is ranked with a 10 percent chance and Bianco at 3 percent as of May 18.

Source: Polymarket

The Cook Political Report shows the California governor race as “Solid D” with partisan voter index score of “D +12,” which means the state, on average , is 12 percentage points more Democratic than the rest of the nation and indicates that statewide Democratic candidates have an entrenched advantage.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball also shows the California governorship as “Safe D.”

Tom Steyer speaks during a gubernatorial candidate forum on Latino and immigrant communities in Sacramento on April 14, 2026. Godofredo A. Vásquez/AP Photo

Campaign Finances

According to Transparency USA, as of May 19, Becerra was running a $3.3 million campaign deficit, taking in about $6.3 million in donations but spending more than $9.6 million. His campaign spending is mainly attributed to aggressive advertising.

A billionaire environmental activist, Steyer has raised about $134 million and spent about $255 million, He is on track to outspend Meg Whitman, a former eBay executive, who set a $159 million campaign spending record in her unsuccessful bid for governor in 2010.

Steyer’s wealth stems mainly from hedge fund investments in fossil fuels and private prisons, which his political opponents have used against him despite his progressive bent.

Steyer is facing an FPPC investigation over allegations his campaign paid social media influencers to post promotional videos without including legally required sponsored content disclosures.

Hilton has raised about $9.8 million and spent about $8.9 million, while Bianco has raised about $5.3 million and spent about $4.2 million.

The Issues

Several lively debates have drawn the national media spotlight on hot-button issues including the high cost of living in California—especially housing, tuition, and state taxes on gasoline—and ongoing problems with homelessness, the drug crisis, crime and public safety, and illegal immigration.