Oil Prices Hold Gains As Gasoline Stocks Hit 12 Year Lows, Cushing 'Tank Bottoms' Loom

Brent crude prices are rising back toward $100 per barrel this morning following the latest flare-up in fighting to threaten the U.S.-Iran ceasefire

Prices rose after the U.S. military said Iran fired missiles toward Kuwait and Bahrain, which failed to hit their targets.

The United States said it then struck an Iranian military ground control station on an island in the Strait of Hormuz.

 

API:

• Crude: -6.8MM

• Cushing: -279k

• Gasoline: +3.5M

• Distillate: -214k

DOE:

• Crude: -7.97mm - biggest draw since Feb

• Cushing: -583k

• Gasoline: +3.36mm - biggest build since Jan

• Distillate: +1.50mm

US crude stocks fell for the sixth straight week with Cushing inventories testing tank bottoms once again. The week saw an unexpected jump in product inventories with Gasoline's biggest build since January...

Source: Bloomberg

Today's rise in gasoline stocks lifts them off their lowest level for this time of year since 2014...

Source: Bloomberg

Cushing 'tank bottoms' are in sight once again...

Source: Bloomberg

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve saw another huge drawdown this week (down 58mm barrels since the start of the war)...

Source: Bloomberg

Rig counts are on the rise as US crude production drifts back towards record highs...

Source: Bloomberg

US crude and product exports jumped back towards record highs...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI was trading around $95 ahead of the official data...

Finally, economists at Macquarie wrote in a note this morning that crude oil’s muted reaction to the closure of Hormuz has mainly been a function of the oversupply seen before the war, .

The analysts suggested that “the market will be ok for another month or two, especially given commercial crude stocks have been cushioned by SPR/product draws."

However, if the Strait remains closed at the end of the northern summer (Labor Day is Sept. 7), physical availability will tighten materially.

“If the Strait reopens soon, we expect prices to fall sharply. However, with stocks drawing rapidly, if the Strait remains closed, at some point prices will need to move much higher.”

'Tank Bottoms' are in sight around the world.