India Set To Miss Budget Deficit Target As Oil Shock Strains Public Finances

Submitted by Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

India may be on track to miss its target for budget deficit for the first time since 2021 as the oil supply shock pressures government coffers.

The government of the world’s third-largest crude oil importer is preparing to exceed its own deficit target from early this year as the Middle East crisis is testing the resilience of public finances amid soaring energy import bills, an Indian official with knowledge of the plans told Bloomberg on Friday.

India may allow the budget deficit to widen to 4.8% of GDP for the current fiscal year ending March 2027, up from a 4.3% limit set in February, days before the Iran war broke out and broke the oil and gas markets.  

Still, India’s Finance Ministry has reassured the major credit rating agencies that the deterioration of the country’s fiscal position would be exclusively due to external pressures and the geopolitical situation, not because of changes to the fiscal policy, the official told Bloomberg.

India is scrambling to contain the economic and financial impact of the worst oil supply disruption in history as analysts say the high oil prices would continue to weigh on the Indian currency, economic growth, and public finances as long as supply is choked at the Strait of Hormuz.

India, which imports more than 85% of the oil it consumes, received about half of all its imports from the Middle East before the war. Now, state-owned and private refiners are looking to diversify imports, including by taking in record volumes of Russian oil, and turning to Venezuela and Brazil for additional crude to offset the lost Middle Eastern supply.

The major crude importer has seen its growth prospects diminished as its high import dependence and the high price refiners pay weigh on inflation and GDP growth.  

India’s economy remains resilient to the external shocks, but the oil price surge poses near-term downside risks to economic growth and upside risks to inflation, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said at the end of May.