AMD Crashes Despite Big Beat, CapEx Almost Triple Expectations

AMD beat on its top- and bottom-line:

• Revenue: $11.54B vs $11.28B expected

• Adjusted EPS: $1.66 vs $1.62 expected

Good news.

With Data center revenue up 107% year over year to  $6.72B, better than the $6.6B expected.

More good news.

As Bloomberg reports, last month, Chief Executive Officer Lisa Su rolled out new products that the company said will outperform offerings from Nvidia, adopting a more aggressive stance in a market it predicts will reach $1.4 trillion by 2030. That further raised already lofty investor expectations.

The chipmaker forecast that third-quarter revenue will be $13 billion, plus or minus $300 million ($12.5 billion consensus).

The outlook boost is good news, but some Wall Street estimates were well north of $13 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Additionally, operating income for the last quarter was only a little better than forecast and clearly traders were hoping for more.

But, AMD shares are down dramatically after-hours, erasing all the day's exuberant gains and then some...

Here's why...

Free cash flow was 20% below forecasts because Q2 Capital Expenditures came in at stunning $808 million, almost triple the $298 million expectation...

It appears the market is unwilling to reward hyperbolic AI spending... without some signs of ROIC (which the revenue forecast did not provide relative to the spend).

This is not great news for AMD’s competitors, like Intel, ARM, and Marvell.