ADP Reports August Saw Weakest Job Growth Since January, Wage Growth Dips

Following a weak JOLTS report (and mixed manufacturing PMI employment reports), ADP was expected to report a modest 47k increase in American jobs in August.

It disappointed with only 37K jobs added in August (while July's 44k addition was revised up modestly to 46k)...

This is the weakest monthly addition since January.

Goods Producers shed jobs at the fastest pace since October...

Manufacturing, professional services, and information shed jobs.

Education and health care, construction, and leisure and hospitality all showed solid hiring.

Pay growth for job-stayers was unchanged at 3 percent, while pay growth for job-changers edged down...

"Pay can tell us a lot about today's choppy hiring," said Dr. Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP.

"To understand hiring patterns, you have to look deeply into where pay growth is accelerating, where it's slowing, and for whom."

Notably, Richardson concludes that "Once-predictable wage growth has been overtaken by the complexities of demographic change, persistent inflation, and AI's effects on jobs."

This doesn't bode well for Friday's payrolls report, and raises the question of whether The Fed will really hike rates with such weak employment data? Or is it all about its inflation-fighting credibility now?