US Diesel At Pump Nears April War High As Global Refining Crisis Deepens

A diesel-price shock may be approaching Western economies.

That's because the industrial fuel sits at the epicenter of freight, agriculture, construction, and heavy industry; soaring prices ripple quickly through supply chains, raising transportation and construction costs, reigniting food inflation, weakening consumer sentiment, and intensifying margin pressure on small and medium-sized businesses.

The latest AAA data show that the nationwide average retail price reached $5.69 per gallon. That leaves diesel just below its April peak, which marked the highest price since mid-2022.

The renewed surge comes as the US-Iran conflict has deepened so far this week with tit-for-tat attacks, further disrupting any full near-term normalization of the Strait of Hormuz. The US is currently operating the Oman shipping corridor. Beyond the Gulf disruptions, Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries are constraining exports from one of the world's largest fuel suppliers. The simultaneous shocks are rippling through the global refining complex, which was already plagued by limited spare capacity.

Earlier this week, President Trump summoned top US refining executives for a closed-door meeting and leaned on them to increase diesel and gasoline production, with diesel creeping toward $6 per gallon nationally and gasoline rising above the politically sensitive level of $4 ahead of November's midterm elections.

Bloomberg's NYMEX one-month heating-oil/crude spread, tracked on the BBG Terminal as the HOCL1 Index, breached $100 per barrel early Tuesday before surging to $108 overnight. It was trading at $104 early Wednesday morning.

"A choppy start to the month so far, with oil and yields continuing to rise, while volatility is also gradually picking up. This comes after President Trump downplayed hopes of a new deal with Iran. Brent is off its overnight highs of approximately $97," UBS analyst Justinus Steinhorst wrote in an earlier note to clients.

At the start of the week, Goldman commodity expert Daan Struyven warned that global refinery runs are down 7 million barrels per day from last year and have averaged nearly 6 million barrels per day below seasonal norms since March.

Kelly Chen, a senior economist at DNB Carnegie, wrote in a note on Tuesday that China is one of the few countries with enough spare refining capacity to provide meaningful relief to the increasingly strained global market.

However, Chen pointed out that Beijing appears to have little economic or strategic incentive to rescue Western fuel markets (read that note here).