Russia Weighs $50 Million Plan To Influence Armenia's Election

Via Eurasianet,

• Reuters reported that Russian officials discussed influence operations aimed at weakening Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan ahead of Armenia’s June 7 parliamentary election.

• One alleged proposal involved temporarily bringing Armenian passport holders living in Russia back to Armenia to vote for opposition candidates.

• Despite the reported efforts, polling suggests Pashinyan’s Civil Contract Party remains the clear frontrunner as Armenia debates its future relationship with Russia and the West.

Russia has mulled an extraordinary measure of exporting humans to Armenia in an effort to undermine Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s chances of retaining power in the fast-approaching parliamentary elections on June 7, according to an investigative report published by the Reuters news agency. 

Despite the Kremlin’s best efforts to manipulate the election’s outcome, recent polling data shows that Pashinyan’s Civil Contract Party is pulling away from a collection of opposition forces and appears increasingly likely to have a majority in the next parliament.

According to Reuters, citing four sources who spoke on condition of anonymity, the Kremlin set up an agency in October called the Directorate for Strategic Cooperation and Partnership to run a wide array of influence operations in Armenia, including disinformation campaigns.

Another initiative reportedly considered involved transporting Armenian passport holders living in Russia back to Armenia temporarily so that they could vote for opposition candidates. Up to 2 million Armenian citizens are believed to be living and working in Russia. Election rules bar expats from voting.

Several Reuters sources said that Russian officials estimated that it would cost about $50 million to send 100,000 Armenians back to their homeland to cast ballots. Reuters could not confirm whether the repatriation-to-vote operation had been set in motion, and, if it had, how many Armenian citizens had actually returned for the elections.

Any such effort would appear to be a waste of time and money. A recent poll published by the International Republican Institute showed that Pashinyan’s public support is growing, the percentage moving from the low 20s to over 30 percent now. 

Given the fragmented support for opposition forces, Pashinyan’s party should be able to retain a parliamentary majority if it can maintain 30 percent support on June 7.

Pashinyan has sought to break Armenia out of Russia’s geopolitical orbit over the past two years and steer the country towards greater integration with the United States and European Union. Russia, meanwhile, is keen to maintain its political hold on Yerevan.

The parliamentary vote is widely seen as a referendum on Armenia’s geopolitical future.